优蜜传媒

The American population can be classified into political subgroups in a variety of ways. Partisan identification -- the way in which the public identifies with the major political parties -- is the most common of these. Although the pattern of party identification has changed over time, and indeed varies from month to month in some instances, one short-hand way of approximating where the public stands is to say that roughly a third of the population tends to identify as Democrat, a third as Republican, and a third as independent.

Ideology -- self-identification as liberal, conservative, or moderate -- is the other major way in which the public can be politically segmented. Because Republicans tend to be associated with conservative causes, and Democrats with liberal causes, one might assume that about a third of the population is conservative, a third liberal, and a third in the middle.

That's not the case, however. The American public is significantly more likely to identify as conservative or moderate than as liberal, leaving a situation in which about 4 in 10 Americans call themselves conservative, 4 in 10 call themselves moderates, and only about 2 in 10 call themselves liberal.

There have been some very slight changes in these patterns over the last four years, with Americans a little more likely to be conservative in October and early November of this year, but the basic pattern has remained remarkably stable:

 

Americans' Ideology Identification as Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal
	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal
	%	%	%
2003 Oct/Nov	41	39	19
2002 Oct	38	39	19
2001 Oct	38	40	19
2000 Oct	37	42	20

The data in the table below display the breakdown of ideology within various subgroups of the American population, based on a combined sample of 4,036 interviews conducted in October and early November 2003:

Ideology by Demographic Subgroups
Based on 优蜜传媒Polls Conducted in October and November 2003
	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal	N=
	%	%	%
Total	41	39	19	4,036
Men	44	39	16	1,928
Women	39	39	21	2,108
Approve of Bush	55	35	9	2,194
Disapprove of Bush	23	44	32	1,689
East	35	43	22	919
Midwest	44	37	18	933
South	44	38	18	1,293
West	40	39	19	888
Whites	43	38	18	3,175
Blacks	30	47	22	440
White Easterners	36	44	20	764
White Midwesterners	44	38	17	822
White Southerners	49	33	17	989
White Westerners	43	37	20	668
High school diploma or less	42	41	16	1,573
Some college education	45	37	18	1,316
College graduate	39	39	21	557
Postgraduate education	31	41	28	577
Republicans	70	26	4	1,307
Independents	29	47	22	1,521
Democrats	25	43	31	1,193
18- to 29-year-olds	32	40	27	762
30- to 49-year-olds	42	39	19	1,625
50- to 64-year-olds	42	40	18	901
65 years and older	47	40	11	719
18- to 38-years-old	35	39	25	1,216
39- to 57-years-old	40	40	20	1,592
58 years and older	47	39	14	1,226
Men, aged 18 to 49	42	39	18	1,180
Men, aged 50 and older	46	40	13	739
Women, aged 18 to 49	35	39	25	1,209
Women, aged 50 and older	43	40	17	881
Less than $20,000 per year	36	42	21	562
$20,000-$29,999 per year	38	43	19	591
$30,000-$49,999 per year	40	40	19	1,066
$50,000-$74,999 per year	46	38	17	686
$75,000 per year and more	42	37	21	909
White Republicans	64	31	5	1,698
White Democrats	20	44	36	1,282
Black Democrats	27	49	24	238

Several key points arise from a consideration of these data:

• There are no subgroups (among those included in this analysis) among whom identification as "liberal" is higher than 36%, suggesting that the liberal "brand" remains distinctly a minority in American culture today. Of particular interest is the fact that only 31% of Democrats say they are "liberal." About one in four Democrats identifies as "conservative," while the remaining 43% identify as moderate. This contrasts with the 70% of Republicans who identify themselves as conservative.

• Whites are more likely to identify themselves as conservatives than are blacks, which isn't necessarily surprising. But blacks are not disproportionately liberal. Instead, almost half of blacks identify as moderate, with 30% saying they are conservative and just 22% as liberal.

• An interesting pattern develops when we look at the interaction of race and party identification. Black Democrats are actually slightly more conservative than white Democrats are, and decidedly less liberal.
  
  This most probably reflects the fact -- confirmed in previous 优蜜传媒Poll research -- that blacks are actually quite conservative on a number of moral issues including homosexual marriage and abortion, despite being quite liberal in their orientation to social issues such as gun control, affirmative action, and welfare. This in turn is almost certainly a result of the high levels of religiosity among blacks in American society, an orientation that pulls blacks away from traditional Democratic views on social issues and puts them closer to the position of white, conservative Republicans.

• Americans with postgraduate educations are more likely to identify themselves as liberal than those with lower levels of educational attainment are. In fact, this highly educated group is more liberal than any subgroup looked at in this analysis other than Democrats and those who disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president.

• There has been a great deal of attention focused on the baby boom generation, the large group of Americans born between 1946 and 1964 (and a group in which the last two presidents have been members). In sheer numbers alone, baby boomers are a significant slice of the demographic pie and thus a potent political force. But the analysis shows that baby boomers are actually ideologically quite similar to the overall adult population in this country. Baby boomers are more conservative than those who are younger, and less conservative than those who are older.

• In fact, the interesting distinction in ideology occurs between the youngest group of Americans, those aged 18 to 29, and the oldest, those 65 and older. The former are less likely than average to identify as conservative and more likely to identify as liberal, while the older group is more likely to be conservative and less likely to be liberal.

• Men are slightly more conservative and less likely to be liberal than are women. More broadly, 18- to 49-year-old women are less conservative than other age/gender groups in American society today.

• Conservatism is slightly higher in the South and Midwest and slightly lower in the East. This pattern is particularly pronounced among whites. Forty-nine percent of white Southerners are conservative, providing a sharp contrast to the significantly lower 36% of white Easterners who are conservative. Easterners tend to be more moderate in their ideological orientation.

There has been much discussion in recent years about the success of talk radio shows and other media programming focused on a more conservative audience. Commentators often ask why liberal media have been much less successful in creating such programs aimed at their constituency. These data help explain this phenomenon. There simply aren't as many liberals as conservatives.

The Democratic Party is going through the throes of selecting its presidential nominee, and some analysts see former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean as one of the front-runners, based in part of his outspoken opposition to U.S. involvement in Iraq -- a decidedly liberal position. At the same time, it has been pointed out that Dean was more moderate in some of his social positions while governor. The data reviewed here, showing that even a significant majority of Democrats identify as conservative or moderate, certainly suggest that Dean (or whoever the Democratic nominee turns out to be) would do well to position themselves more in the middle of the road, and to avoid being typecast as a liberal. Certainly the data suggest that a presidential candidate who appeals to conservative or moderate voters will have a larger constituency than one who is identified as a liberal.