优蜜传媒

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are divided over whether the recent congressional elections, which gave Republicans majority control of both houses of Congress, represent a good or bad thing for the country -- with a plurality of the public taking a middle position. Still, for several different issue areas, Americans express mild optimism that things are more likely to be better rather than worse under Republican control. Also, the public's rating of the two major parties shows Americans to be a little more positive about the Republican than the Democratic Party. The long-term trend in party ratings shows much volatility, with both parties usually receiving favorable ratings from at least half the public.

These findings are based on a CNN/USA Today/优蜜传媒poll conducted Nov. 22-24, which shows that 33% of Americans think the country will be better off because the Republicans now control Congress, while 28% say the country will be worse off. A plurality, 38%, however, says that Republican control will not make any difference.

With Republican Control of Congress, Country Will Be ... ?

After the midterm elections in 1994, when Republicans won majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in four decades, Americans expressed a more lopsided view. In a December 1994 survey, 41% said the country would be better off with Republicans controlling Congress, and just 16% said worse off. Still, close to a plurality, 40%, said the GOP victory would make no difference. These results were similar to those found in a November 1994 survey.

Not surprisingly, party affiliation greatly affects how people assess the country's well-being under GOP control. Republicans say the United States will be better off rather than worse off by a 74% to 2% margin, while Democrats take the opposite point of view by a 56% to 6% margin. Independents are truly ambivalent, with 20% saying better off, 23% worse off, and a majority -- 54% -- saying the change will make no difference.

With Republican Control of Congress, Country Will Be ... ? Compared by Party

2002 Nov 22-24

While the general reaction to the GOP victory is ambivalent, Americans express mostly optimistic views that on a series of issues, Republicans will make things better rather than worse. On only one issue, the war against terrorism, do Americans express rather intense views, while on all others they are more likely to say things will be "a little better" than "a lot better."

Regardless of the effect that Republican control of the White House and both houses of Congress will have on the country as a whole, do you think that in the next two years the Republicans will make things -- [ROTATED: a lot better, a little better, a little worse, (or) a lot worse] -- in each of the following areas? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

	A lot better	A little better	SAME (vol.)	A little worse	A lot worse
	%	%	%	%	%
War on terrorism	33	34	4	13	13
Education	16	46	9	19	8
The economy	14	43	5	24	13
Decisions made by the Supreme Court/other federal judges	14	39	10	19	13
Healthcare	9	39	8	26	16
The environment	9	32	10	26	21
Medicare and Social Security	9	31	9	27	21
(vol.) Volunteered response

SUMMARY TABLE: BETTER OR WORSE WITH REPUBLICAN CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT

2002 Nov 22-24 (sorted by "a lot better")	Total better	Total worse
	%	%
The war against terrorism	67	26
Education	62	27
The economy	57	37
The decisions made by the Supreme Court and other federal judges	53	32
Healthcare	48	42
The environment	41	47
Medicare and Social Security	40	48

Americans are least optimistic that Republicans will help the environment or make Medicare and Social Security better, with a plurality on each issue saying the issue will be worse under GOP control.

Party Ratings Show Republicans Enjoy Slight Advantage Over Democrats

The poll also shows that despite the generally positive views that Americans have about the GOP election victory, the Democrats are rated only slightly lower than the Republicans. On a scale from -5 to +5, 23% of Americans give Republicans a score of "4" or "5," compared with 17% who give these scores to Democrats. Four in 10 Americans also give each party a positive score between "1" and "3." That gives the Republicans a total favorable score of 64% to the Democrats' 59%.

Favorable Ratings of Each Party 1956-2002

The last time the party ratings were measured on this type of scale was in January 1999, just after House Republicans had voted to impeach President Bill Clinton. The impeachment itself was widely opposed by the American public. The current ratings show a significant improvement for the GOP since that time, while Democrats are viewed less favorably.

Survey Methods

The latest results are based on telephone interviews with 1,017 national adults, aged 18+, conducted Nov. 22-24, 2002. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is 卤3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now that the Republicans have won control of Congress in this November's elections, do you think the country will be better off, worse off, or will it not make any difference?

		Better off	Worse off	No differ- ence	No opinion
		%	%	%	%
2002 Nov 22-24		33	28	38	1
1994 Dec 28-30		41	16	40	3
1994 Nov 28-29		43	18	35	4
1994 Oct 7-9 ^		34	18	45	3
^	WORDING: If the Republicans win control of Congress, do you think the country will be better off, worse off, or will it not make any difference?

Regardless of the effect that Republican control of the White House and both houses of Congress will have on the country as a whole, do you think that in the next two years the Republicans will make things -- [ROTATED: a lot better, a little better, a little worse, (or) a lot worse] -- in each of the following areas? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

	A lot better	A little better	SAME (vol.)	A little worse	A lot worse	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%	%
War on terrorism	33	34	4	13	13	3
The economy	14	43	5	24	13	1
Healthcare	9	39	8	26	16	2
Decisions made by the Supreme Court and other federal judges	14	39	10	19	13	5
Education	16	46	9	19	8	2
Medicare and Social Security	9	31	9	27	21	3
The environment	9	32	10	26	21	2
(vol.) Volunteered response

Q.8 CONTINUED

SUMMARY TABLE: BETTER OR WORSE WITH REPUBLICAN CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT

2002 Nov 22-24 (sorted by "a lot better")	A lot better	Total better	Total worse
	%	%	%
The war against terrorism	33	67	26
Education	16	62	27
The economy	14	57	37
The decisions made by the Supreme Court and other federal judges	14	53	32
Health care	9	48	42
The environment	9	41	47
Medicare and Social Security	9	40	48

Next, I'd like you to rate the political parties on a scale. If you have a favorable opinion of the party, name a number between plus one and plus five -- the higher the number, the more favorable your opinion. If you have an unfavorable opinion of the party, name a number between minus one and minus five -- the higher the number the more unfavorable your opinion. First, how would you rate ... Next, how would you rate ... [ITEMS ROTATED]

A. The Republican Party

	Highly favor- able (+4,5)	Moder- ately favor- able (+1,2,3)	Moder- ately unfavor- able (-1,2,3)	Highly unfavor- able (-4,5)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
(NA) 2002 Nov 22-24	23	41	19	14	3
(NA) 1999 Jan 15-17	18	38	22	17	5
(NA) 1998 Nov 13-15	9	38	25	15	13
(RV) 1996 Oct 26-29	25	38	20	13	4
(NA) 1996 Mar	17	45	20	11	7
(NA) 1996 Feb	21	41	20	13	5
(NA) 1996 Jan	20	41	20	14	5
(NA) 1994 Nov 28-29	29	41	16	12	2
(NA) 1993 Dec 17-19	22	50	17	7	4
(NA) 1992 Dec 4-6	21	40	21	14	4
(NA) 1991 Oct	18	47	17	11	7
(NA) 1991 Sep	17	52	16	8	7
(NA) 1984 Sep	26	39	15	14	6
(NA) 1981 Mar	30	44	11	8	7
(NA) 1980 Oct	18	47	19	11	5
(NA) 1980 May	17	50	18	10	5
(NA) 1975 Nov	15	47	20	14	4
(NA) 1973 Aug	19	40	20	16	5
(NA) 1972 Oct	29	43	14	9	5
(NA) 1970 Oct	25	47	14	10	4
(NA) 1968 Dec	25	42	17	13	3
(NA) 1968 Sep	30	47	12	7	4
(NA) 1968 Jul	27	43	16	9	5
(NA) 1968 May	27	46	14	9	4
(NA) 1967 Oct	34	39	15	8	4
(NA) 1967 Apr	33	44	12	7	4
(NA) 1966 Dec	28	41	15	7	9
(NA) 1966 Aug	29	44	14	6	7
(NA) 1965 May	26	39	12	7	16
(NA) 1964 Oct	21	33	16	17	13
(NA) 1956 Oct	33	29	13	12	13
(NA) 1956 Feb	27	31	24	6	12
(NA) National Adults
(RV) Registered Voters

Q.6 CONTINUED

B. The Democratic Party

	Highly favor- able (+4,5)		Moder- ately favor- able (+1,2,3)		Moder- ately unfavor- able (-1,2,3)		Highly unfavor- able (-4,5)		No opinion
	%	%		%		%		%
(NA) 2002 Nov 22-24	17	42		25		13		3
(NA) 1999 Jan 15-17	31	41		16		9		3
(NA) 1998 Nov 13-15	27	41		17		12		3
(RV) 1996 Oct 26-29	32	38		16		10		4
(NA) 1996 Mar	24	40		18		11		7
(NA) 1996 Feb	20	42		20		13		5
(NA) 1996 Jan	21	41		22		12		4
(NA) 1994 Nov 28-29	18	37		26		18		1
(NA) 1993 Dec 17-19	24	44		20		9		3
(NA) 1992 Dec 4-6	29	43		15		8		5
(NA) 1991 Oct	16	42		22		13		7
(NA) 1991 Sep	16	47		21		8		8
(NA) 1984 Sep	26	39		18		9		8
(NA) 1981 Mar	34	41		12		6		7
(NA) 1980 Oct	27	46		15		7		5
(NA) 1980 May	28	48		14		6		4
(NA) 1975 Nov	30	48		13		5		4
(NA) 1973 Aug	29	43		15		9		4
(NA) 1972 Oct	30	44		14		6		6
(NA) 1970 Oct	35	44		11		6		4
(NA) 1968 Dec	41	33		15		6		5
(NA) 1968 Sep	32	38		17		10		3
(NA) 1968 Jul	36	37		14		8		5
(NA) 1968 May	42	36		12		7		3
(NA) 1967 Oct	31	35		18		14		2
(NA) 1967 Apr	40	37		11		7		5
(NA) 1966 Dec	33	37		13		9		8
(NA) 1966 Aug	36	40		10		7		7
(NA) 1965 May	44	34		7		4		11
(NA) 1964 Oct	45	29		10		5		11
(NA) 1956 Oct	38	25		12		10		15
(NA) 1956 Feb	43	26		22		6		3
(NA) National Adults
(RV) Registered Voters