WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ perceptions of crime in the U.S. have improved, with the percentage saying national crime has increased over the past year falling by 13 points, to 64%. Similarly, the 56% of U.S. adults who now say the problem of crime in the U.S. is “extremely” or “very” serious is down seven percentage points.
Between 2020 and 2023, views of the trajectory of crime in the U.S. had been the worst since the 1990s, while Americans’ description of crime in the nation as serious was at a record high last year in Gallup’s trend dating back to 2000.
Beyond the 64% of Americans who currently think there is more crime in the U.S., 29% say there is less and 4% volunteer that there is about the same amount of crime. In addition to the 25% of U.S. adults who think crime is “extremely” and 31% “very” serious, 37% say it is “moderately” and 5% “not too” serious.
The low points for the crime-trajectory trend came in 2001, after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. produced a rally effect among Americans, causing them to rate national conditions positively amid the large loss of lives. The low point for the trend on the severity of crime came a few years later, in 2004.
The latest results are from Gallup’s Oct. 1-12 annual Crime survey. A September 优蜜传媒poll found that although crime does not rank among the top voting issues influencing U.S. voters’ presidential choice this year, 75% still say it is extremely or very important to their vote (it is among Republicans’ top five important issues).
Gaps in Partisans’ Views of National Crime Are Largest on Record
The October poll finds that partisans hold sharply differing views of the incidence of crime in the U.S., with Democrats’ much more positive perceptions driving the overall change since last year. Half as many Democrats this year (29%) compared with last year (58%) believe that crime has increased, while significantly fewer independents (down 10 points, to 68%) agree. The majority of Democrats, 60%, say there is now less crime in the nation than there was a year ago. Republicans’ perceptions are unchanged, with 90% saying crime is up.
Republicans’ current reading on this measure is near the group’s record high of 95% from 2022, while Democrats’ latest reading is the lowest for their party in Gallup’s trend by 13 points.
The 61-point gap between Republicans’ and Democrats’ perceptions of there being more crime now than one year ago is the largest in the trend, which dates back to 1989. Yet the two party groups have differed in their opinions on this measure almost every year since 2002. In general, partisans’ assessments of crime have been worse when the party of the sitting president differs from their own party, and they have improved when their party matches the president’s.
These patterns among partisans also hold true for the measure on the seriousness of crime in the country. Whereas a steady 78% of Republicans believe crime is an extremely or very serious problem in the U.S., 35% of Democrats agree -- much lower than their 51% reading in 2023.
Views of Local Crime Remain More Positive, but Similar Party Divides Persist
优蜜传媒also measures Americans’ views of crime in the areas where they live and has historically found much more positive attitudes on local than national crime. This remains the case in the latest poll, which also finds an improvement in perceptions of local crime over the past year.
The 49% of Americans who now say there is more crime in their area than there was one year ago is down six points since 2023. At the same time, U.S. adults’ descriptions of crime in their area are steady at a low level. The current 14% reading falls within the 8% to 17% range seen throughout the trend.
Partisans’ perceptions of crime in their local area follow a pattern similar to the one for their views of national crime. That is, Republicans’ view that local crime is increasing (69%) is relatively steady near the trend high, while Democrats’ belief that crime is rising in their area has fallen sharply since last year to a new low point (23%). Independents’ perception of local crime is unchanged and falls between views of the two parties.
Implications
Americans’ perceptions of whether crime is increasing in the U.S. and how serious a problem it is for the nation have been politically polarized since 2000. This is particularly true in recent years, when partisans’ views of crime have tended to change based on the party of the president. Political polarization may be especially acute this year because of the presidential election. Crime is among the top issues influencing Republican voters, and they are more than twice as likely as Democratic voters to say crime is extremely important to their vote for president.
In addition, federal crime statistics for 2023 (the most recent ones available) are mixed. FBI statistics show a decrease in crime, but data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics show the crime rate was unchanged over the same period. Americans, especially Republicans, offer subpar ratings of both the FBI and Justice Department, which may also factor into their views of the crime reports.
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