优蜜传媒

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The economy ranks as the most important of 22 issues that U.S. registered voters say will influence their choice for president. It is the only issue on which a majority of voters, 52%, say the candidates’ positions on it are an “extremely important” influence on their vote. Another 38% of voters rate the economy as “very important,” which means the issue could be a significant factor to nine in 10 voters.

Voters view Donald Trump as better able than Kamala Harris to handle the economy, 54% versus 45%. Trump also has an edge on perceptions of his handling of immigration (+9 percentage points) and foreign affairs (+5), while Harris is seen as better on climate change (+26), abortion (+16) and healthcare (+10). The candidates are evenly matched on voters’ impressions of who would better address gun policy.

Just under half of voters overall agree with Trump (49%) or Harris (47%) on the issues that matter most to them.

These findings are from a 优蜜传媒poll conducted Sept. 16-28.

Importance of Economy Highest Since Great Recession

The current 52% of voters rating the economy as an “extremely important” influence on their vote for president is the highest since October 2008 during the Great Recession, when 55% of voters said the same. In polls conducted closest to the election in other presidential election years since 1996, between 38% and 44% of voters rated candidates’ positions on the economy as extremely important to their vote. Half of these readings are from September or October polling; the exceptions are 2000 (August), 2012 (February) and 2016 (May).

Democracy, National Security, Supreme Court Justice Picks Highest After Economy

Besides the economy, no other issue receives an “extremely important” rating from most voters; however, majorities consider most issues as "extremely" or "very important." Just two issues -- climate change (50%) and transgender rights (38%) -- are viewed by less than a majority of voters as extremely or very important to their presidential vote choice.

Between 41% and 49% of voters say four issues are extremely important to their vote -- democracy in the U.S., terrorism and national security, the types of Supreme Court justices the candidates would pick if they became president, and immigration. Ten issues are rated as extremely important by 31% to 38% of voters, including education, healthcare, gun policy, abortion, taxes, crime, the distribution of income and wealth in the U.S., the federal budget deficit, foreign affairs, and the situation in the Middle East between the Israelis and Palestinians.

Fewer voters, 23% to 27%, consider five issues as extremely important to their vote choice -- energy policy, relations with Russia, race relations, relations with China and trade with other nations. Twenty-one percent of voters say climate change and 18% say transgender rights are of the utmost importance to their vote.

Partisans’ Views of the Importance of Most Issues Diverge Significantly

Whereas 66% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters rate the economy as extremely important to their presidential votes, far fewer Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters do (36%). The combined extremely/very important reading for the economy is 98% among Republican/Republican-leaning voters and 82% among Democratic/Democratic-leaning voters.

The economy is the top-ranked issue for Republican voters, but it is not among Democratic voters’ top five issues. In fact, there is no overlap between Republican and Democratic voters in the top five issues ranked as extremely important to their votes. For Democrats, democracy in the U.S., the types of Supreme Court justices the candidates would pick, abortion, healthcare and education are the five most important voting issues. Immigration, terrorism and national security, crime, and taxes round out Republican voters’ five top issues.

The current partisan divide on rating the economy extremely important is in marked contrast to 2008, when it was the top-scoring issue for both parties.

Voters differ significantly by party on the importance of most issues measured. The greatest difference is for immigration (40 points). The next-largest divergences among partisan voters are 29- to 32-point differences for five issues -- crime, climate change, the economy, the federal budget deficit and terrorism/national security.

Republican and Democratic voters rate three issues as similarly important -- education, relations with Russia, and gun policy.

Trump Favored to Handle Economy, Immigration, Foreign Affairs

Slim majorities of U.S. voters think Trump would do a better job than Harris when it comes to handling the economy (54%), immigration (54%) and foreign affairs (52%). At the same time, majorities of voters favor Harris over Trump to handle climate change (61%), abortion (56%) and healthcare (54%). Voters are evenly divided on which candidate would better deal with gun policy.

As would be expected, Republican and Democratic voters broadly favor their own party’s candidate to handle each of the issues. Majorities of Democratic voters, ranging from 88% to 97%, think Harris would be better on all seven issues.

There is more variation among Republicans for Trump’s ability to handle issues, ranging from highs of 97% on immigration and the economy to lows of 69% on climate change and 78% on abortion. One-quarter of Republican voters think Harris would be better on climate change and 16% say the same about abortion. No more than 11% of Democratic voters think Trump would be better than Harris on any of the issues.

Voters Split on Which Candidate They Agree With on Issues That Matter Most

Voters are evenly divided over whether they agree (49%) or disagree (50%) with Trump on the issues that matter most to them. They express similar levels of agreement with Harris’ stances on the issues they value most, as 47% say they agree with her, while 52% disagree.

Voters in both parties overwhelmingly say they agree with their party’s candidate on the issues that matter most to them -- 95% of Republican voters agree with Trump, and 92% agree with Harris.

Harris fares better than Joe Biden did in June, when 37% of U.S. voters said they agreed with him on the issues that matter most to them. Trump’s readings are essentially unchanged since June.

Bottom Line

Economic confidence in the U.S. has been persistently low this year, which is reflected in U.S. voters rating the economy as the most important issue impacting their choice for president. While the economy often ranks as one of the top voting issues in presidential elections, this year it may be more influential than in any election since 2008 during the Great Recession. Trump is favored over Harris to better handle the issue, giving him a significant advantage in the election, though this is partly influenced by Republicans being more likely than Democrats to rate the economy as an extremely important issue.

Partisans differ sharply in their views of the most important vote issues this year, with no common issues among each group’s top five.

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