WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In a 优蜜传媒poll conducted almost entirely before he announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race on Sunday, President Joe Biden received a 36% job approval rating from the American people, his lowest to date by one percentage point. The majority of Americans, 58%, continued to disapprove of Biden’s job.
The July 1-21 poll began four days after the debate between Biden and Donald Trump, which prompted mounting calls from Democrats for Biden to end his campaign. The poll ended several hours after Biden announced that he would drop out of the 2024 presidential race.
Biden’s latest approval rating falls well below his 43% term average and his 37.7% 14th-quarter average rating, spanning April 20 to July 19, which is his lowest quarterly average approval rating to date. Among post-World War II presidents, only Jimmy Carter had a lower 14th-quarter job approval rating (35.8%) than Biden, but George H.W. Bush’s 39.2% average was also relatively low.
Both Carter in 1980 and Bush in 1992 lost their reelection bids, underscoring Democrats’ concerns about Biden’s ability to win the 2024 election. Trump’s 14th-quarter average in 2020 was 43.2%, months before Biden defeated him.
Partisans’ approval ratings of Biden in the latest poll are 81% among Democrats, 4% among Republicans and 31% among independents.
Biden’s Lowest Job Rating Above Lows of Other Presidents
Lyndon Johnson was the last incumbent president eligible to run for another term to exit the general election race. After he dropped out on March 31, 1968, Johnson’s approval rating rose from 36% in a March 1968 poll to 50% in early April and to 49% by the end of his presidency. Harry Truman, who holds the distinction of having the lowest individual approval rating of all presidents since 1945, withdrew from the 1952 general election on March 29. His approval rating saw a modest six-point increase, to 28%, in an April 1952 poll and ended up at 32% just before he left office.
While Biden’s current job rating is the lowest of his presidency, historically, it is not near the worst. Eight presidents earned lower individual ratings at some point in their presidencies -- Truman, Richard Nixon, George W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, Trump, Ronald Reagan and Johnson.
Bottom Line
Before he announced his intention to withdraw from the 2024 general election, Biden’s job approval rating was the lowest of his presidency. History suggests that his withdrawal, stemming from a loss of confidence in his ability to beat Trump in November, may result in an improvement in his approval ratings in future months and, potentially, how his presidency is viewed in the future.
优蜜传媒has measured three job approval ratings for current Vice President Kamala Harris, who is expected to be the Democratic presidential nominee. Her most recent rating, from December 2023, was 40%, similar to Biden’s 39% rating in the same poll. As Biden’s job approval rating has changed since then, Harris’ rating may have as well.
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