优蜜传媒

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are becoming less convinced that the United States and its allies are winning the war on terrorism, with the percentage of the public perceiving U.S. success on this front dropping to 41% in May, down from 47% in April and a high of 66% in January. Public confidence was highest in December and January, after Taliban forces were defeated on December 7 at their last major stronghold in Afghanistan. But since this victory for "Operation Enduring Freedom," the target in the war on terrorism has become less well-defined, and success more difficult to assess. The acceleration of government warnings about potential attacks in the United States may partly explain Americans' deteriorating confidence in the success of the anti-terror mission.

Few Americans believe that the terrorists are winning the war on terrorism; rather, most of those not seeing U.S. dominance say that "neither side" is winning. Still, the percentage saying the terrorists are winning has slowly crept up, from 5% in December to 15% today. The latest CNN/USA Today/优蜜传媒poll was conducted May 28-29.

Who Is Winning the War on Terrorism?

Fear Holding Steady

Despite the recent wave of warnings about potential terrorist attacks, Americans' personal fear of becoming a victim of terrorism remains about the same as it has been for several months. The late-May poll shows only 9% of the public "very worried" about either themselves or a family member becoming a victim of terrorism; 31% are "somewhat worried." Another third (37%) say they are "not too worried" while 22% are not worried at all.

The total percentage "very" or "somewhat" worried today (40%) is slightly higher than in April (35%), but is generally consistent with public concern levels measured over the last seven months. Since November, the average percentage of Americans expressing significant concern about terrorism striking their own lives has been 38%. Only in the first few weeks after Sept. 11 did a majority of the public feel this concerned.

How Worried About Becoming Terrorist Victim?

As the above graph shows, concern about terrorism has been consistently higher since Sept. 11, compared with a 优蜜传媒survey conducted in April 2000. At that time, only 24% of Americans were very or somewhat worried about becoming a victim. Today's 40% concern level indicates no surge in fear as a result of the latest round of government warnings.

Reluctance to Fly Is Down From September

This stabilization of fear is also reflected in Americans' professed willingness to expose themselves to situations where terrorism might occur: specifically, flying on airplanes, going into skyscrapers, and traveling overseas. The percentage of Americans saying they are less willing to do each of these things is now lower than when first asked on Sept. 14-15, despite the recent warnings about terrorism.

Today, only 27% of Americans say they are less willing to fly on airplanes as a result of Sept. 11, down slightly from 33% who felt this way in March, and from 43% in September, shortly after the terrorist attacks involving hijacked commercial airplanes. Twenty-seven percent also say they are less willing to go into skyscrapers, identical to the March reading but down from 35% in September. The percentage of Americans expressing less willingness to travel overseas since the attacks has not dropped as much. It is 43% today, similar to the 45% in March and 48% in September.

Women More Fearful Than Men

The results show a gender gap in levels of fear about terrorism. In comparison with men, women are less likely to say the United States is winning the war on terrorism, more fearful of becoming a terrorist victim, and more reluctant to expose themselves to places where terrorist acts might occur.

Almost half of women (48%) say they are very or somewhat worried about terrorism affecting them or their families, compared with only 30% of men. As the chart below shows, women are almost twice as likely as men to say they are reluctant to fly or enter skyscrapers, and are significantly less willing than men to travel abroad.

Percentage Less Willing to Do Each of the Following

These gender differences are consistent with the pattern of male-female responses to questions about fear of terrorism seen over the past nine months.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 28-29, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of terrorism -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?

 

		Very worried	Somewhat worried	Not too worried	Not worried at all	KNOW A VICTIM (vol.)	No opinion
		%	%	%	%	%	%
2002 May 28-29		9	31	37	22	1	*
2002 Apr 22-24		8	27	39	25	1	*
2002 Mar 4-7		12	33	32	23	*	*
2002 Feb 4-6 ^		8	27	39	25	0	1
2001 Nov 26-27		8	27	34	30	1	*
2001 Nov 2-4		11	28	34	26	0	1
2001 Oct 19-21 †		13	30	33	23	*	1
2001 Oct 11-14 †		18	33	35	14	*	*
2001 Oct 5-6 †		24	35	27	14	*	*
2001 Sep 21-22 †		14	35	32	18	*	1
2001 Sep 14-15 †		18	33	35	13	*	1
2001 Sep 11 † ‡		23	35	24	16	1	1
2000 Apr 7-9 ^		4	20	41	34	--	1
1998 Aug 20 ‡ ?		10	22	38	29	--	1
1996 Jul 20-21 ‡		13	26	34	27	--	*
1996 Apr 9-10 ?		13	22	33	32	--	*
1995 Apr 21-23 ?		14	28	33	24	--	1
^	Asked of a half sample.
†	WORDING: How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim a terrorist attack -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?
‡	Based on one night poll of national adults with a margin of error of ±4 pct. pts.
?	WORDING: How worried are you that someone in your family will become a victim of a terrorist attack similar to the bombing in Oklahoma City?
?	WORDING: How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of a terrorist attack similar to the bombing in Oklahoma City?
(vol.)	Volunteered response
*	Less than 0.5%

Who do you think is currently winning the war against terrorism -- [ROTATED: the U.S. and its allies, neither side, or the terrorists]?

 

	U.S. and its allies	Neither side	The terrorists	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2002 May 28-29	41	35	15	9
2002 Apr 22-24	47	39	10	4
2002 Mar 22-24	51	35	12	2
2002 Mar 4-7	53	34	10	3
2002 Jan 7-9	66	25	7	2
2001 Dec 6-9	64	28	5	3
2001 Nov 8-11	53	33	11	3
2001 Oct 11-14	42	44	11	3

As a result of the events that occurred on September 11^th, would you say that now you are less willing to -- [RANDOM ORDER], or not?

A. Fly on airplanes

 

	Yes, less willing	No, not	MORE WILLING (vol.)	No opinion
2002 May 28-29	27%	69	1	3
2002 Mar 8-9	33%	64	1	2
2001 Sep 14-15 ^	43%	56	*	1

B. Go into skyscrapers

 

	Yes, less willing	No, not	MORE WILLING (vol.)	No opinion
2002 May 28-29	27%	68	1	4
2002 Mar 8-9	27%	70	1	2
2001 Sep 14-15 ^	35%	63	*	2

C. Travel overseas

 

	Yes, less willing	No, not	MORE WILLING (vol.)	No opinion
2002 May 28-29	43%	52	1	4
2002 Mar 8-9	45%	52	1	2
2001 Sep 14-15 ^	48%	48	1	3

 

^	SEP. 14-15, 2001 WORDING: As a result of Tuesday's events, would you say that now you are less willing to [RANDOM ORDER], or not?
(vol.)	Volunteered response
*	Less than 0.5%

SUMMARY TABLE: WILLINGNESS TO ENGAGE IN ACTIVITIES

 

2002 May 28-29 (sorted by "Less willing")	Yes, less willing	No, not
	%	%
Travel overseas	43	52
Go into skyscrapers	27	68
Fly on airplanes	27	69