优蜜传媒

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new 优蜜传媒poll finds that the race for majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives is a dead heat, with Democrats and Republicans each enjoying 46% support of registered voters. In four previous polls dating from December of last year, Republicans led Democrats by an average of just over three percentage points among these voters. That small of a lead would generally be considered within the margin of error for just one poll, but when the results remain essentially the same over four polls, a small lead becomes more significant. Thus, the results suggest that during the past several months, the Republicans enjoyed a small, though significant lead over Democrats, but that their lead has now disappeared.

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district? (Among Registered Voters)

The East is a particularly strong region for Democrats; they lead in this region by 52% to 39%. Republicans and Democrats are within three percentage points of each other in the Midwest and the South, but GOP candidates enjoy a nine-point lead over Democrats in the West (51% to 42%).

Democratic Candidates for President

Among registered Democrats, Al Gore continues to receive the most support to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2004. Just over a quarter of the Democratic electorate support him, compared with 18% who support Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, 9% who support Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, and 8% who support the Democratic Party's 2000 vice presidential nominee, Senator Joe Lieberman. In addition, 6% of registered Democrats each support House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Bill Bradley receives 5% support.

Preference for Democratic Nominee for President in 2004 (Among Registered Democrats)

March 22-24, 2002

The largest changes since August of last year are found in the support levels for Daschle and Bradley. The Senate Majority Leader has experienced an increase in support of seven percentage points (from 2% to 9%), while Bradley has seen his support decrease from 13% to 5%.

Former Vice President Al Gore has also experienced a slight decline in support, from 32% among registered Democrats last August to 26% currently. A bright note of sorts for Gore is the fact that most Americans, by a margin of 62% to 15%, think he looks better with his beard shaved, the state to which he has returned after sporting a beard for a number of months following his defeat in the 2000 presidential race. Among registered Democrats, the margin is slightly greater in favor of a clean-shaven face: 69% to 14%. Some, perhaps stretching the significance of this personal grooming decision, have interpreted Gore's decision as an indication that he is leaning towards running for president again in 2004.

Survey Methods

The current results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,011 adults, 18 years and older, conducted March 22-24, 2002.

For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district -- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?

As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?

 

	Democratic candidate	Republican candidate	Undecided/ other
	%	%	%
National Adults
(NA) 2002 Mar 22-24	45	43	12
(NA) 2002 Feb 8-10	42	44	14
(NA) 2002 Jan 25-27	45	44	11
(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14	44	44	12
(NA) 2001 Dec 14-16	44	46	10
(NA) 2001 Nov 2-4	43	44	13
(NA) 2001 Jun 8-10	50	43	7
Registered Voters
(RV) 2002 Mar 22-24	46	46	8
(RV) 2002 Feb 8-10	43	47	10
(RV) 2002 Jan 25-27	44	46	10
(RV) 2002 Jan 11-14	43	46	11
(RV) 2001 Dec 14-16	43	48	9
(RV) 2001 Nov 2-4	45	45	10
(RV) 2001 Jun 8-10	49	45	6

Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [RANDOM ORDER: Former Vice President, Al Gore; New York Senator, Hillary Rodham Clinton; Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry; Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman; North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; House Democratic Leader, Dick Gephardt; Former New Jersey Senator, Bill Bradley; Senate Democratic Leader, Tom Daschle; the Reverend Al Sharpton; Vermont Governor, Howard Dean]

 

BASED ON -- 454 -- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS; ±5 PCT. PTS.

 

 

		2002 Mar 22-24		2002 Jan 25-27		2001 Aug 3-5
		NA	RV	NA	RV	NA	RV
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Al Gore		26	26	29	30	34	32
Hillary Rodham Clinton		19	18	14	14	21	19
Tom Daschle		8	9	7	7	2	2
Joe Lieberman		7	8	8	9	9	10
Dick Gephardt		7	6	6	7	9	10
John Kerry		6	6	5	5	6	7
Bill Bradley		5	5	9	9	12	13
Joe Biden		3	2	3	3	1	1
The Reverend Al Sharpton ^		2	2	2	1	^	^
John Edwards		2	3	4	4	1	1
Howard Dean †		1	2	†	†	†	†
Other		2	2	1	1	*	*
No One		5	5	4	3	2	2
No Opinion		7	6	8	7	3	3
^	The Reverend Al Sharpton was not included in the list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election in the Aug. 3-5, 2001 poll.
†	Vermont Governor, Howard Dean was not included in the list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election in the Jan. 25-27, 2002 and the Aug. 3-5, 2001 poll.

 

ALL: Do you think Al Gore looks better with a beard, or without a beard?

 

	With a beard	Without a beard	No opinion
	%	%	%
2002 Mar 22-24	15	62	23