优蜜传媒

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 54% to 47% in Gallup's historical "scalometer" measure of candidate favorability. Trump's 2020 rating on the zero to 10 scale is better than the all-time low 36% he received in 2016, and Biden's rating exceeds Hillary Clinton's 47% that year. Nevertheless, the 2020 ratings are among the lowest in Gallup's trends since 1956.

	Nominee	Total favorable	Total unfavorable	Net favorable
		% (+1 to +5)	% (-1 to -5)	+/-
1956 Oct 18-23	D. Eisenhower	84	12	+72
1964 Oct 8-13	L. Johnson	81	13	+68
1960 Oct 18-23	J. Kennedy	80	14	+66
1976 Sep 24-27	J. Carter	81	16	+65
1960 Oct 18-23	R. Nixon	79	16	+63
1976 Sep 24-27	G. Ford	78	20	+58
1968 Oct 17-22	R. Nixon	79	22	+57
1972 Oct 13-16	R. Nixon	76	21	+55
1968 Oct 17-22	H. Humphrey	72	28	+44
1984 Sep 21-24	R. Reagan	71	30	+41
1980 Oct 10-13	J. Carter	68	32	+36
1984 Sep 21-24	W. Mondale	66	34	+32
1992 Oct 23-25	B. Clinton	64	33	+31
1956 Oct 18-23	A. Stevenson	61	31	+30
2008 Oct 23-26	J. McCain	63	35	+28
1980 Oct 10-13	R. Reagan	64	37	+27
2008 Oct 23-26	B. Obama	62	35	+27
2012 Oct 27-28	B. Obama	62	37	+25
2004 Oct 22-24	G.W. Bush	61	39	+22
1992 Oct 23-25	G.H.W. Bush	59	40	+19
2004 Oct 22-24	J. Kerry	57	40	+17
1972 Oct 13-16	G. McGovern	55	41	+14
2012 Oct 27-28	M. Romney	55	43	+12
2020 Sep 30-Oct 15	J. Biden	54	43	+11
1964 Oct 8-13	B. Goldwater	43	47	-4
2020 Sep 30-Oct 15	D. Trump	47	51	-4
2016 Nov 2-5	H. Clinton	47	52	-5
2016 Nov 2-5	D. Trump	36	61	-25
Based on U.S. adults. No data for 1988, 1996 and 2000
Gallup

Gallup's "scalometer" rating format asks respondents to share their views of people in the news using a score from +1 to +5 to indicate degrees of favorability toward a person (with +5 being highly favorable) and from -1 to -5 to indicate degrees of negative opinion (with -5 being highly unfavorable).

优蜜传媒asked this question routinely prior to 1992 to measure the images of U.S. public figures. Since then, the question has been used only occasionally for the president and presidential candidates to allow for key historical comparisons.

Most presidential candidates from the 1950s to the 1970s enjoyed 70% or better favorable ratings on this measure, with several at 80% or higher. The ratings largely remained above 60% through 2012 before plummeting in 2016. The few candidates performing below par for their respective eras -- Barry Goldwater in 1964, George McGovern in 1972, George H.W. Bush in 1992, John Kerry in 2004 and Mitt Romney in 2012 -- all lost.

The latest results are based on a national 优蜜传媒telephone poll conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 15.

As is typical for the scalometer measure, both candidates this year are rated better on the favorability scalometer than on the binary favorable/unfavorable rating that 优蜜传媒relies on more frequently. Gallup's most recent standard favorable ratings of the 2020 candidates, based on an Aug. 31-Sept. 13 poll, put Trump at 41% and Biden at 46%.

Trump Better Liked Than in 2016, but Deficit With Opponent Unchanged

As noted, Trump is viewed more favorably than he was four years ago when he and the Democratic nominee, Sen. Hillary Clinton, achieved the dubious distinction of being the least favorably viewed presidential candidates in the history of 优蜜传媒polling.

In November 2016, 36% of U.S. adults viewed Trump favorably on the scalometer question and 61% unfavorably, resulting in a -25 net-favorable score. That compares with his -4 net favorable rating today. Clinton's net favorable image in November 2016 was better than Trump's, but still negative by five points, with 47% viewing her favorably and 52% unfavorably.

Before 2016, no presidential candidate had been viewed unfavorably on the 优蜜传媒scalometer by a majority of Americans, although Goldwater came close in 1964 with his 43% favorable and 47% unfavorable ratings. However, Goldwater was the only candidate prior to Trump and Clinton who had a higher unfavorable than favorable rating.

Although Trump's image has since improved, he now faces an opponent with a significantly better image than Clinton's in 2016. As such, there continues to be a sizeable gap between Trump's net favorable score and his Democratic opponent's: -4 for Trump today and +11 for Biden vs. -25 for Trump in 2016 and -5 for Clinton.

Most Incumbents Have Led Their Opponent in Favorability -- and Won

Trump heads toward this year's election day as only the second incumbent in 优蜜传媒trends to trail his opponent in favorability -- the other being George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Bush lost that election to Bill Clinton. The only other incumbent to lose reelection in this era -- Jimmy Carter, in 1980 -- had a slight edge in favorability over his challenger, Ronald Reagan.

	Total favorable	Total unfavorable
	% (+1 to +5)	% (-1 to -5)
1956
D. Eisenhower	84	12
A. Stevenson	61	31
1964
L. Johnson	81	13
B. Goldwater	43	47
1972
R. Nixon	76	21
G. McGovern	55	41
1980
J. Carter	68	32
R. Reagan	64	37
1984
R. Reagan	71	30
W. Mondale	66	34
1992
G.H.W. Bush	59	40
B. Clinton	64	33
2004
G.W. Bush	61	39
J. Kerry	57	40
2012
B. Obama	62	37
M. Romney	55	43
2020
D. Trump	47	51
J. Biden	54	43
Based on U.S. adults. No data for 1996
Gallup

Independents More Positive About Both Candidates This Year

Trump's scalometer favorable rating has improved 12 percentage points since 2016 among Republicans and 13 points among independents while remaining in single digits among Democrats. Meanwhile, compared with Clinton's 2016 ratings, Biden's favorable rating is up seven points among Democrats and 20 points among independents, while he also receives minimal positive ratings from Republicans.

	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
	%	%	%
Republican candidate
2020 (Donald Trump)	93	45	6
2016 (Donald Trump)	81	32	8
Democratic candidate
2020 (Joe Biden)	10	60	92
2016 (Hillary Clinton)	6	40	85
Based on U.S. adults
Gallup

It is worth noting that Trump gets a much higher "highly favorable" rating from Republicans today (73%) than he did in 2016 (30%), while his highly unfavorable rating from Democrats (78%) is similar to what it was in 2016. Thus, intensity of partisan reactions to Trump has improved in his favor, possibly encouraging more Republicans to participate in the election this year than did so in 2016.

At the same time, Biden is less polarizing than Clinton was, with 66% of Republicans viewing him highly unfavorably compared with 79% feeling that way about Clinton in 2016. Also, Democrats feel slightly more positive about him than they did about Clinton, with his highly favorable rating among this group at 51% versus 44% for Clinton. Thus, Democrats may be more motivated to come out to support the Democratic nominee this year, while Republicans have a bit less reason to want to block the Democrat from winning.

Bottom Line

The 2016 campaign was characterized by historically low favorable ratings for the two major party candidates, with Trump's overall favorable rating on the scalometer sharply lower than Clinton's. Today, Trump has essentially improved to Clinton's level of favorability while Biden is rated significantly better than Clinton was. This has raised the average candidate favorable rating between the two elections from 41.5% to 50.5%. And this may partly explain why Americans are expressing much greater enthusiasm about voting today than they did four years ago.

What these favorable scores mean for the outcome is unclear. Clinton won the 2016 popular vote while also enjoying a higher favorable rating than Trump but lost the election in the Electoral College. Trump must overcome a similar favorability gap in 2020 to win a second time, with the notable difference that Biden is viewed favorably by a majority of Americans, whereas Clinton was not.

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