GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush begins his first week in office with the American public's relatively strong support for the direction of his policies, but with some sense of foreboding about what may be to come. The public's priorities for the Bush administration are similar to those measured throughout last year's presidential campaign. Education leads the list, followed by keeping the country prosperous, and addressing Social Security, healthcare, and the cost of prescription drugs for seniors. The public is fairly optimistic that Bush will be able to improve education and keep the country prosperous, but less convinced that he will be able to fix Social Security or improve healthcare.
Majority Says Bush's Policies Will Move Country in Right
Direction
Despite the neck-and-neck nature of the contentious presidential
contest this past year, a clear majority of Americans believe that
President Bush's policies will move the country in the right
direction rather than the wrong direction -- by a 56% to 36%
margin. Additionally, Bush himself has a healthy 62% favorable
rating (just 36% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of the
president), and a majority of Americans interviewed before his
inauguration on Saturday said they approved of his cabinet
appointments and of the way he was handling the transition.
Nonetheless, expectations for the next four years are somewhat
muted compared to eight years ago, when Bill Clinton took office.
Only 46% of Americans today say they believe the country will be
better off four years from now, while almost as many -- 42% --
believe the country will be worse off. By contrast, in November
1992, 51% of the public was optimistic that the country would be
better off in four years while just 31% thought things would be
worse.
These differences no doubt reflect the different economic environments into which the two presidents took office. Clinton won the presidency at a time when Americans believed the United States was in an economic recession, so perhaps it was less of a leap of faith to forecast that the country would be getting better four years hence, particularly with Bill "It's The Economy Stupid" Clinton taking the helm. Bush is taking office after two years of record-high public evaluations of the economy (leaving relatively little room for improvement) and at the beginning of what appears to be growing public concern about the nation's economic outlook.
Low expectations, of course, may not be bad for the Bush administration. Bush himself, in the weeks prior to his inauguration, repeatedly said that he was worried about the direction of the economy, perhaps helping to create the type of diminished economic expectations picked up in the new poll.
Americans Optimistic That Education and Prosperity Will be
Successfully Handled by Bush Administration
ÓÅÃÛ´«Ã½asked Americans about their priorities for the Bush
administration in a January 5-7 survey, and found the
following.
TOP/HIGH PRIORITY SUMMARY TABLE
Top |
High |
Top/High |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Improving education |
50 |
44 |
94 |
Keeping America prosperous |
43 |
48 |
91 |
Ensuring the long-term strength of the Social Security system |
46 |
43 |
89 |
Helping senior citizens pay for prescription drugs |
42 |
46 |
88 |
Keeping the federal budget balanced |
40 |
48 |
88 |
Ensuring the long-term strength of the Medicare system |
40 |
48 |
88 |
Improving the healthcare system |
43 |
44 |
87 |
Providing military security for the country |
39 |
46 |
85 |
Improving conditions for minorities and the poor |
30 |
50 |
80 |
Reducing the use of illegal drugs in America |
36 |
42 |
78 |
Improving the quality of the environment |
30 |
48 |
78 |
Improving race relations |
28 |
47 |
75 |
Cutting federal income taxes |
26 |
39 |
65 |
Improving the way political campaigns are financed |
25 |
35 |
60 |
In Gallup's most recent poll, conducted January 15-16, Americans were asked whether they feel the Bush administration would, or would not, be able to accomplish a number of objectives. The results can be split into three groups: 1) those that a majority of Americans think Bush will be able to accomplish, 2) those which Americans doubt Bush will accomplish, and 3) those on which the public is about evenly split.
Here are the six objectives that more than half of Americans say Bush will able to accomplish (within each group, those objectives that are high priorities for Americans arebolded):
- Improve military security for the country
- Improve education
- Keep America prosperous
- Increase respect for the presidency
- Improve respect for the United States abroad
- Improve moral values in the United States
Here are the things that 50% or more of the public says Bush willnotbe able to accomplish:
- Heal political divisions
- Improve the quality of the environment
- Improve race relations
- Reduce the crime rate
- Improve conditions for the disadvantaged and the poor
There are five objectives on which the public's expectations are about evenly split:
- Ensure long-term strength of the Social Security system
- Keep the federal budget balanced
- Ensure the long term strength of the Medicare system
- Cut your taxes
- Improve the healthcare system
Clearly, Americans see three of the objectives as being within the reach of the new Bush administration -- improving respect for the presidency, improving moral values and improving respect for the United States abroad. (These attitudes may result from a contrast effect with the departed Clinton administration, with which the public was less likely to associate the words "respect" and "moral"). It is perhaps not surprising, given both the legacy of Bush's father, and his own public pronouncements, that Americans give improving military security a high probability of success under the new Bush administration.
Education is quite an important issue area -- President Bush declared it one of his highest priorities during his campaign, and the American public says it is their most important concerns. Thus, education is an issue that is "in sync" between the president and the public, one with high expectations for success, and it has the potential to be one of the key focus points for the new Bush administration.
It is apparent that many Americans are skeptical of quick fixes to several of the more intractable problems faced by the country: race relations, the environment, crime, and the problems of the disadvantaged and the poor (none of which, however, are among the highest priorities for Americans). Also, the public is not highly optimistic that Bush will be able to heal the political divisions within the country that were exacerbated by the post-election controversy in Florida.
The healthcare issue is interesting -- unlike education, Americans are significantly more skeptical that Bush will be able to fix the problem. It may be that Americans perceive Bush to have a track record of some success with education in Texas, and/or it may simply be that Americans' own experiences lead them to believe that the education situation in this country is amenable to repair. At the same time, it's possible that the high profile efforts of Bill and Hillary Clinton to reform the country's healthcare system -- widely considered to be a dramatic failure -- explain the pessimistic views of Americans about the issue.
Finally, three of the public's four most important priorities, as well as the public's expectations for success, lie in the middle range: Social Security, balancing the federal budget, and Medicare. It is important to note that tax cuts, a high priority for Bush but not necessarily for the public, are given only a mid-range probability of actually becoming law.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,055 adults, 18 years and older, conducted January 15-16, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Next I have some questions about the Bush administration which will take office later this month. Regardless of which presidential candidate you preferred, do you think the Bush administration will or will not be able to do each of the following? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
A. Keep the federal budget balanced
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
||
% |
% |
% |
||
George W. Bush |
||||
2001 Jan 15-16 |
50 |
46 |
4 |
|
Bill Clinton |
||||
1993 Feb 16-17 ^ |
50 |
45 |
5 |
|
1993 Feb 12-14 ^ |
46 |
48 |
6 |
|
1992 Nov 10-11 ^ |
38 |
54 |
8 |
|
George Bush, the elder |
||||
1989 Jan 24-25 ^ |
39 |
46 |
15 |
|
1988 Nov 14-Dec 4 |
33 |
52 |
15 |
|
^ |
WORDING: Reduce the federal budget deficit |
B. Keep America prosperous
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
George W. Bush |
|||
2001 Jan 15-16 |
63% |
33 |
4 |
George Bush, the elder |
|||
1989 Jan 24-25 |
74% |
15 |
10 |
1988 Nov 14-Dec 4 |
65% |
23 |
12 |
C. Improve respect for the United States abroad
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
||
% |
% |
% |
||
George W. Bush |
||||
2001 Jan 15-16 |
58 |
38 |
4 |
|
Bill Clinton |
||||
1992 Nov 10-11 ^ |
50 |
40 |
10 |
|
George Bush, the elder |
||||
1989 Jan 24-25 ^ |
74 |
15 |
11 |
|
1988 Nov 14-Dec 4 ^ |
64 |
24 |
12 |
|
Ronald Reagan |
||||
1980 Nov 21-24 ^ |
62 |
24 |
14 |
|
^ |
WORDING: Increase respect for the United States abroad |
D. Improve education
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
George W. Bush |
|||
2001 Jan 15-16 |
66% |
32 |
2 |
Bill Clinton |
|||
1992 Nov 10-11 |
69% |
25 |
6 |
George Bush, the elder |
|||
1988 Nov 14-Dec 4 |
61% |
30 |
9 |
E. Improve the quality of the environment
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
George W. Bush |
|||
2001 Jan 15-16 |
42% |
52 |
6 |
Bill Clinton |
|||
1992 Nov 10-11 |
64% |
29 |
7 |
George Bush, the elder |
|||
1989 Jan 24-25 |
62% |
26 |
12 |
1988 Nov 14-Dec 4 |
50% |
36 |
14 |
F. Improve conditions for the disadvantaged and the poor
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
||
George W. Bush |
||||
2001 Jan 15-16 |
44% |
51 |
5 |
|
Bill Clinton |
||||
1992 Nov 10-11 ^ |
68% |
27 |
5 |
|
George Bush, the elder |
||||
1988 Nov 14-Dec 4 ^ |
39% |
48 |
13 |
|
^ |
WORDING: Improve conditions for minorities and the poor |
G. Cut your taxes
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
||
George W. Bush |
||||
2001 Jan 15-16 |
49% |
46 |
5 |
|
Bill Clinton |
||||
1993 Feb 12-14 ^ |
15% |
82 |
3 |
|
1992 Nov 10-11 ^ |
20% |
74 |
6 |
|
George Bush, the elder |
||||
1989 Jan 24-25 ^ |
29% |
64 |
8 |
|
1988 Nov 14-Dec 4 ^ |
24% |
68 |
8 |
|
^ |
WORDING: Avoid raising your taxes |
H. Improve the healthcare system
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
George W. Bush |
|||
2001 Jan 15-16 |
46% |
49 |
5 |
Bill Clinton |
|||
1992 Nov 10-11 |
64% |
30 |
6 |
I. Improve military security for the country
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
2001 Jan 15-16 |
81% |
16 |
3 |
J. Ensure the long-term strength of the Social Security system
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
2001 Jan 15-16 |
50% |
44 |
6 |
K. Ensure the long-term strength of the Medicare system
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
2001 Jan 15-16 |
49% |
44 |
7 |
L. Improve race relations
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
2001 Jan 15-16 |
44% |
51 |
5 |
M. Increase respect for the presidency
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
2001 Jan 15-16 |
61% |
36 |
3 |
N. Improve moral values in the United States
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
2001 Jan 15-16 |
55% |
41 |
4 |
O. Heal political divisions in this country
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
|
2001 Jan 15-16 |
41% |
53 |
6 |
P. Reduce the crime rate
Will |
Will not |
No opinion |
||
George W. Bush |
||||
2001 Jan 15-16 |
44% |
50 |
6 |
|
George Bush, the elder |
||||
1989 Jan 24-25 ^ |
39% |
49 |
12 |
|
1988 Nov 14-Dec 4 ^ |
36% |
52 |
12 |
|
^ |
WORDING: Reduce the crime rate in the United States |
Q.10 CONTINUED
WILL/WILL NOT SUMMARY TABLE
Will |
Will not |
|
% |
% |
|
Improve military security for the country |
81 |
16 |
Improve education |
66 |
32 |
Keep America prosperous |
63 |
33 |
Increase respect for the presidency |
61 |
36 |
Improve respect for the United States abroad |
58 |
38 |
Improve moral values in the United States |
55 |
41 |
Ensure the long-term strength of the Social Security system |
50 |
44 |
Keep the federal budget balanced |
50 |
46 |
Ensure the long-term strength of the Medicare system |
49 |
44 |
Cut your taxes |
49 |
46 |
Improve the healthcare system |
46 |
49 |
Improve conditions for the disadvantaged and the poor |
44 |
51 |
Reduce the crime rate |
44 |
50 |
Improve race relations |
44 |
51 |
Improve the quality of the environment |
42 |
52 |
Heal political divisions in this country |
41 |
53 |