优蜜传媒

PRINCETON, NJ -- Registered voters who identify themselves as conservatives are significantly more enthusiastic about voting in this fall's congressional elections than are liberals or moderates. Those who say they are "very" conservative are the most enthusiastic of all, with substantially higher enthusiasm than those who say they are "very" liberal.

These data are based on 优蜜传媒Daily interviewing May 1-16. throughout May has been closely divided, with roughly the same proportion of all registered voters saying they would vote for the in their district. Thus, at this point, it appears turnout among supporters of both parties' candidates will be an important factor in the eventual Election Day outcome.

Enthusiasm on the "Left" and "Right"

优蜜传媒data since March of this year have consistently shown that . The data presented here on ideology confirm the conclusion that, at this time in the campaign, those to the right of the political spectrum appear to be most motivated to turn out and vote on Nov. 2.

The challenge for those on the political left is that, not only are there proportionately few self-identified liberals -- 20% of registered voters interviewed so far in May identify as liberals, compared to 42% who say they are conservatives -- but liberals remain relatively apathetic about voting. The 26% of liberals who say they are very enthusiastic about voting is similar to the percent of those who don't lean either direction ideologically speaking (moderates) who say the same, and at a far lower level than those who are conservative.

A relatively small percentage of registered voters define themselves as "very" conservative (10%) or "very" liberal (4%). Despite their modest size overall, these voters could have a disproportionate influence on Election Day. They are significantly more enthusiastic about voting than those who share the same ideological identity, but who do not use the adjective "very" to describe their leanings. In short, those who have very strong ideological commitments are also the most eager to register that commitment through voting on Election Day this year.

Conservatives More Enthusiastic Regardless of Party Affiliation

The higher enthusiasm among conservatives is evident among both conservative Republicans and conservative Democrats. However, conservative Republicans are still much more enthusiastic than conservative Democrats. Conservatives who support either party are more enthusiastic about voting than moderates or liberals who support either party, as well as the largely apolitical group of "pure independents" who do not identify with or lean to either major party.

Bottom Line

Ideology at this point in the election cycle appears to be a major driver of enthusiasm about voting in this fall's congressional election. Conservatives are significantly more enthusiastic than liberals or moderates, and those Americans who define themselves as "very" conservative -- about 10% of the registered voter population -- are the most enthusiastic of all.

These data underscore the potential power of conservatives at the ballot box this fall -- including those who identify with the highly-publicized Tea Party movement. The generic ballot currently shows an overall close candidate preference among all registered voters right now in the election cycle, but in low-turnout midterm elections disproportionate enthusiasm, such as is the case now, could give right-leaning candidates a significant boost in terms of actual voters at the polls.