优蜜传媒

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- An instant reaction poll of speech watchers last night found President George W. Bush receiving exceptionally high marks for his State of the Union address. The vast majority also responded favorably to Bush's call for all Americans to commit at least two years of their lives to community and/or national service. When asked which issue was more important to them in the president's speech, respondents chose terrorism over the economy by a 52% to 29% margin.

The major findings of the CNN/USA Today/优蜜传媒instant reaction poll are as follows:

• 94% of speech watchers said their overall reaction to the speech was positive, with 74% saying "very" positive.
• 91% said the policies being proposed by Bush would move the country in the right direction; just 7% said the wrong direction. These numbers represent an improvement over this same group's responses in a poll conducted in the days just prior to the speech, when 77% said the right direction and 16% said the wrong direction.
• 97% projected that Bush's proposals to deal with terrorism would be effective, with 64% saying "very" effective.
• 88% also rated Bush's proposals to deal with the economy as effective, but with a significantly smaller percentage, 41%, saying "very" effective.
• 73% said that the economic program Bush presented last night would be likely to get the country out of the recession, while just 22% disagreed. When the elder George Bush gave his State of the Union address in January 1992, the speech watchers at that time were evenly divided, 47% to 47%, over whether the president's proposals would get the country out of the recession.
• 52% of respondents felt that what Bush said about terrorism was more important to them than what he said about the economy, while 29% took the opposite point of view.
  

During the speech, Bush called upon all Americans to commit at least two years -- or 4,000 hours over the course of their lifetimes -- to the service of their neighbors and their nation. Eight in 10 respondents said they would be both willing and able to make that commitment, while 19% said they would not. The most positive responses came from middle-aged (30-49) Americans, with 86% expressing a willingness to make such a commitment, but commitment was also high among younger (79%) and older Americans (77%).

Republicans Outnumbered Democrats Among Speech Watchers

Typically, presidential speech watchers disproportionately identify with the party of the president. Last night, the imbalance in favor of the president's party was substantially greater than the imbalance measured during any of the four speeches during the Clinton administration when 优蜜传媒conducted an instant reaction poll, or during the speech by the senior George Bush in 1992. Half of the respondents (50%) last night were Republican, while the rest split evenly between independents (25%) and Democrats (25%). By contrast, among those who watched Clinton's speeches, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by margins that ranged from just seven to 15 percentage points. When the senior Bush gave his last State of the Union address, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the post-speech poll by just six percentage points, 37% to 31%. An instant reaction poll to George W. Bush's first major speech to the nation last February found a Republican skew in the audience similar to last night's.

The composition of the audience can be important in the president's overall marks, as the responses to the questions tend to be highly partisan. Still, even among Democrats, Bush fared quite well last night -- 86% of Democrats said they felt positive about his speech; 72% said his policies would move the country in the right direction; 74% said his economic proposals would be effective; 92% said his proposals to deal with terrorism would be effective; and 63% said they would be willing and able to commit themselves to two years of national service. All of these percentages are lower than those measured among Republicans, but are nevertheless quite high overall.

On the economy, however, the partisan differences among speech watchers were more significant. Unlike Republicans, Democrats were ambivalent about whether the president's economic program would be likely to get the country out of the recession. While Republicans said yes, by 90% to 7%, and independents agree by 67% to 27%, Democrats split almost evenly, 48% to 46%. Democratic speech watchers also found themselves at odds with independent and Republican speech watchers over the importance of the economy vs. terrorism. The Democrats divided evenly on the issue, with 42% taking each side, while Republicans and independents chose the issue of terrorism over the economy by 54% to 24%, and 59% to 25% respectively.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 381 speech watchers, aged 18+, conducted January 29, 2002. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Survey respondents were first interviewed by 优蜜传媒between January 25-28, 2002, at which time they indicated they planned to watch the president's 2002 State of the Union address and were willing to be re-interviewed by 优蜜传媒after the speech. Respondent's pre- and post-speech answers are shown for those questions that were asked on both surveys.

The sample consists of 50% of respondents who identify themselves as Republicans, 25% who identify themselves as Democrats, and 25% who identify themselves as independents.

What was your overall reaction to Bush's speech tonight – [ROTATED: very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, (or) very negative]?

 

	Very positive	Somewhat positive	Somewhat negative	Very negative	BOTH/MIXED (vol.)	No opinion
George W. Bush
2002 Jan 29	74%	20	3	2	1	0
2001 Feb 27	66%	26	6	1	*	1
Bill Clinton
1999 Jan 19	56%	27	9	7	1	*
1998 Jan 27	52%	32	11	5	*	*

Do you think the policies being proposed by George W. Bush will move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction?

 

	Right direction	Wrong direction	No opinion
	%	%	%
George W. Bush
2002 Jan 29 (Post-speech)	91	7	2
2002 Jan 25-27 (Pre-speech)	77	16	7
2001 Feb 27 (Post-speech)	84	12	4
2001 Feb 25-26 (Pre-speech)	73	12	15
Bill Clinton
1995 Jan 24 (Post-speech)	83	15	2
1995 Jan 23 (Pre-speech)	51	35	4
1994 Jan 25 (Post-speech)	84	11	5
1994 Jan 22-24 (Pre-speech)	67	27	6
2001 WORDING: Thinking about the policies of President Bush and his administration, in your view, is George W. Bush leading the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
1994-1995 WORDING: Thinking about the policies of President Clinton and his administration, in your view, is Bill Clinton leading the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

Do you think the proposals Bush outlined tonight to deal with the economy will be -- very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not effective at all?

 

	Very effective	Somewhat effective	Not very effective	Not effective at all	No opinion
2002 Jan 29	41%	47	6	4	2

Do you think the proposals Bush outlined tonight to deal with terrorism will be -- very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not effective at all?

 

	Very effective	Somewhat effective	Not very effective	Not effective at all	No opinion
2002 Jan 29	64%	33	2	1	*

Do you think the economic program Bush presented tonight is likely to get the country out of the recession, or not?

 

	Likely	Not likely	WILL MAKE THINGS WORSE (vol.)	No opinion
George W. Bush
2002 Jan 29	73%	22	*	5
George H.W. Bush
1992 Jan 28	47%	47	*	6

Tonight President Bush called on all Americans to commit at least two years -- or 4,000 hours -- over the course of their lifetime to the service of their neighbors and the nation. Is this something that you would, personally, be both willing and able to do, or not?

 

	Yes, willing and able	No, not willing and able	No opinion
2002 Jan 29	80%	19	1

 

 

Which of the following was more important to you in tonight's speech -- [ROTATED: what Bush said about the economy, (or) what Bush said about terrorism]?

 

 

	The economy	Terrorism	BOTH (vol.)	NEITHER (vol.)	No opinion
2002 Jan 29	29%	52	18	1	*

(vol.) – Volunteered response

* -- Less than 0.5%