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WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A majority of Americans continue to support the effort in helping Ukraine regain all of its lost territory, even if that means a more prolonged conflict. The 62% favoring this today represents a slight decline in popular support for that position from August 2022, when 优蜜传媒first asked the question.

The latest data are from a 优蜜传媒web survey conducted June 1-20, just before the failed rebellion led by Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin ended in an about-face after a short-lived march on Moscow. It is unclear how much the recent dramatic events in Russia have affected people’s views on the war. Prior to that event, just over a third of Americans said they would like to see the U.S. end the war as quickly as possible, even if that would result in Moscow keeping the territory it has captured.

When asked about the United States’ role in the war, 43% of Americans, a new high, say the U.S. is doing the “right amount” to help Ukraine. Meanwhile, there has been a 12-percentage-point decline to 26% since August 2022 in the percentage saying the U.S. isn’t doing enough to assist Ukraine -- as well as a slight increase in the percentage saying the U.S. is doing too much, now 29%.

The U.S. has supplied weapons and military aid to Ukraine since the conflict began.

Partisan Split Persists on War Effort

Republicans have generally been split on the U.S. backing a protracted conflict between Ukraine and Russia. But their preference for a quick end to the war -- even if that would allow Russia to keep territory -- and their position that the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine strengthened in the latest reading.

• Republicans are more likely now (50%) than when the war began (43%) to say the U.S. is doing too much to support Ukraine.
• Republicans are also more likely today (49%) than in January 2023 (41%) to prefer ending the conflict quickly, even if it allows Russia to keep captured territory.
• Independents have been supportive of Ukraine during the conflict, but their views have also shifted in a similar direction to those of Republicans.
• Independents are more likely now (43%) than last summer (34%) to prefer ending the war quickly.
• Independents were more supportive last August (64%) of Ukraine fighting in a prolonged conflict than they are today (55%), although a majority still hold that view.

Democrats have been the most supportive of U.S. military support for Ukraine. They have overwhelmingly and consistently favored a longer war in which Ukraine attempts to regain lost land. However, their views on the United States' efforts have shifted from saying the U.S. is not doing enough for Ukraine to saying it is doing the right amount.

So, Who’s Winning?

In the June poll, most Americans described the current state of the war as a stalemate, seeing neither Ukraine nor Russia as currently winning the war. Fifty-seven percent held this view, while more said Ukraine (30%) rather than Russia (12%) is winning.

Again, Democrats are the most positive toward Ukraine, with 45% believing it is winning, compared with 24% of independents and 17% of Republicans. Republicans are as likely to say Russia is winning as to say Ukraine is, though nearly two-thirds say neither side is.

While it’s important to note that these data were gathered just before the attempted coup by Prigozhin, the immediate impact of those developments has not noticeably changed the course of the war as of this writing. While its relocation to Belarus remains ominous, the Wagner Group’s presence in the country could create a new push by Moscow from the north for Kyiv, just as it attempts to move west in its counteroffensive.

Bottom Line

A majority of Americans remain supportive of the Ukraine war effort. Most are willing to see Ukraine continue to fight back to liberate land captured by Russia, even if it means a prolonged war. But while the majority supports Ukraine, most say that neither Ukraine nor Russia is winning the conflict, now in its 16^th month. And this comes at a time of reduced public demand for the U.S. to step up its assistance to Ukraine.

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