优蜜传媒

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A slim 51% majority of Americans support federal judge Amy Coney Barrett to fill the U.S. Supreme Court seat left vacant by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death last month. At the same time, 46% of U.S. adults do not want Barrett to be seated, and 3% do not yet have an opinion of her nomination.

Barrett is the twelfth Supreme Court nominee for whom 优蜜传媒has measured public support since 1987. The public's initial support for Barrett's confirmation is higher than either of President Donald Trump's two previous nominees -- Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh -- had at any point prior to their confirmations. But opposition is also higher than any other nominee's initial reading. This is owed to the fact that the percentage of Americans with no opinion on the Barrett vote is strikingly lower than it has been for any other nominee in Gallup's history.

On average, 25% of Americans have not had an opinion of Supreme Court nominees in the initial measure after the president's selection. The 3% with no opinion on Barrett's nomination is even lower than the average 22% that 优蜜传媒has seen in the final measurement before the last eight justices were confirmed.

	Date of poll	Vote in favor	Not vote in favor	No opinion
		%	%	%
Amy Coney Barrett	2020 Sep 30-Oct 15	51	46	3
Brett Kavanaugh	2018 Jul 10-15	41	37	22
Neil Gorsuch	2017 Feb 1-2	45	32	23
Merrick Garland	2016 Mar 18-19	52	29	19
Elena Kagan	2010 May 24-25	46	32	22
Sonia Sotomayor	2009 May 29-31	54	28	19
Samuel Alito	2005 Nov 7-10	50	25	25
Harriet Miers	2005 Oct 13-16	44	36	20
John Roberts	2005 Jul 22-24	59	22	19
Ruth Bader Ginsburg	1993 Jun 18-21	53	14	33
Clarence Thomas	1991 Jul 11-14	52	17	31
Robert Bork	1987 Aug 24-Sep 2	31	25	44
Average for previous nominees		48	27	25
Note: Data are based on first 优蜜传媒survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
GALLUP

The latest reading is from a Sept. 30-Oct. 15 poll, which began four days after Trump officially nominated the 48-year-old federal appeals court judge who is expected to move the court in a more conservative direction. The poll ended on the same day that the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings came to a close.

The committee is expected to vote this week, setting up a final vote by the full Senate the week prior to Election Day, Nov. 3, which makes the current timeline one of the most accelerated in U.S. history. If confirmed as expected, it will be the closest to a general election that a justice has been seated on the nation's highest court.

Several factors may be contributing to the high proportion of Americans expressing an opinion on Barrett's confirmation. Among them is the fact that the nomination process is unfolding during a presidential election campaign in which millions of voters have already cast their ballots. Additionally, Democrats have cited the 2016 precedent when Republican senators refused to consider President Barack Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland nearly eight months before that year's election. Moreover, the fact that Barrett had been cited in the past as a possible nominee by Trump may have raised awareness about her.

Notably, although more Americans want to see Barrett confirmed than not, polling by other organizations has shown solid majorities wanting the winner of the Nov. 3 election and the newly elected Senate to make the nomination rather than President Trump and the current Senate.

Record-High Opposition Among Democrats and Support Among Republicans

While partisanship has always been a factor in the public's reaction to prior nominees, the level of opposition to Barrett's confirmation among Democrats is the highest 优蜜传媒has measured to date among those who identify with the party not holding the White House. The 84% of Democrats who stand against Barrett's nomination exceeds the 67% who opposed Kavanaugh shortly after his nomination as well as the final 78% reading after his contentious confirmation hearings.

	Party of president	Opposition party	Vote in favor	Not vote in favor	No opinion
			%	%	%
Barrett	Rep	Dem	15	84	1
Kavanaugh	Rep	Dem	14	67	19
Gorsuch	Rep	Dem	21	57	22
Garland	Dem	Rep	33	51	16
Kagan	Dem	Rep	26	51	22
Sotomayor	Dem	Rep	24	57	20
Alito	Rep	Dem	35	40	25
Miers	Rep	Dem	27	53	20
Roberts	Rep	Dem	42	35	23
Ginsburg	Dem	Rep	41	25	34
Thomas	Rep	Dem	45	25	31
Bork	Rep	Dem	18	38	43
Note: Data are based on first 优蜜传媒survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
GALLUP

Republicans' support for Barrett's nomination is also higher than any other nominee dating back to 1987. Nearly nine in 10 Republicans (89%) support her compared with 76% who were in favor of Kavanagh and Gorsuch.

	Party of president	Vote in favor	Not vote in favor	No opinion
		%	%	%
Barrett	Rep	89	9	2
Kavanaugh	Rep	76	9	15
Gorsuch	Rep	76	11	14
Garland	Dem	76	11	14
Kagan	Dem	68	12	20
Sotomayor	Dem	76	6	17
Alito	Rep	73	11	16
Miers	Rep	73	16	11
Roberts	Rep	82	5	13
Ginsburg	Dem	65	6	29
Thomas	Rep	63	10	27
Bork	Rep	48	11	41
Note: Data are based on first 优蜜传媒survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
GALLUP

Independents' 52% support for Barrett's confirmation is identical to what it was for the woman who she would be replacing, Ginsburg. It is also on par with independents' views of the nominations of Sonia Sotomayor and John Roberts, but it is higher than the last two nominees to the high court -- Gorsuch (44%) and Kavanaugh (38%).

	Vote in favor	Not vote in favor	No opinion
	%	%	%
Barrett	52	43	5
Kavanaugh	38	37	25
Gorsuch	44	31	25
Garland	44	31	25
Kagan	43	33	25
Sotomayor	54	27	19
Alito	43	26	31
Miers	39	34	27
Roberts	54	24	22
Ginsburg	52	12	36
Thomas	48	17	35
Bork	30	26	44
Note: Data are based on first 优蜜传媒survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
GALLUP

Bottom Line

Trump's nomination of Barrett to replace Ginsburg on the Supreme Court was a particularly controversial move given that it came so close to the election. The sharp political polarization in the country and attention from the media to the unusual timing of the nomination may be why nearly all Americans have an opinion about it. Whatever the case, Americans are sharply divided in their support for her.

Democrats have little recourse to stall or otherwise block Barrett's nomination as only 51 votes are needed for confirmation, and the filibuster is no longer an option for Supreme Court justices. As such, they seem to have accepted that Barrett will be most likely be seated before Election Day. Their questions in last week's hearings were used more as an opportunity to try to portend what the court will look like with her tipping the balance even further to the conservative side than to thwart her nomination. They have laid out their predictions about how the U.S. healthcare system and abortion rights may change with Barrett as a justice, and Biden has left the door open to the possibility that, if elected, he may move to add justices to the Supreme Court.

With the exceptions of Bork, Miers and Kavanaugh, there has been little change in Americans' fundamental support for the confirmation of past high court nominees between Gallup's initial readings and subsequent measurements leading up to their confirmation hearings. As such, barring an extraordinary turn of events, the public is likely to continue to back Barrett's confirmation.

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