优蜜传媒

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's approval rating is holding steady at a lower level after a sharp drop in late May and early June, with 38% of Americans currently approving of the job he is doing.

In early May, Trump's approval tied his personal best at 49% -- before it sank amid nationwide protests over racial injustice after the death of George Floyd. Now his approval rating stands just three percentage points above his personal low of 35%, registered on four separate occasions in 2017.

The latest results are based on a June 8-30 优蜜传媒poll. While Trump's overall job approval rating is essentially unchanged from the prior May 28-June 4 poll, it does show some improvement among Republicans, from 85% to 91%. However, the current poll also indicates the president's approval rating has dropped among independents, from 39% to 33%, as well as among Democrats, from 5% to 2%.

The current 89-point difference between Republicans' and Democrats' ratings of Trump is the largest partisan gap 优蜜传媒has ever measured for a presidential approval rating in a single survey. Trump had previously registered 87-point gaps in late January and early February polls, conducted around the time of his Senate impeachment trial and ultimate acquittal.

	Poll dates	Republicans	Independents	Democrats	Rep-Dem gap
		%	%	%	pct. pts.
Trump	2020 Jun 8-30	91	33	2	+89
Trump	2020 Feb 3-16	93	43	6	+87
Trump	2020 Jan 16-29	94	42	7	+87
Trump	2020 Apr 1-14	93	39	7	+86
Trump	2019 Nov 1-14	90	38	4	+86
Trump	2019 Sep 3-15	91	38	5	+86
Trump	2019 Mar 1-10	90	33	4	+86
Trump	2018 Nov 5-11	91	34	5	+86
Obama	2012 Oct 29-Nov 4	6	51	92	-86
Gallup

Trump Approval Slips Below Majority Level Among White Americans, Men

Before the recent downturn in public support, the president had averaged 47% job approval this year. The eight-point average decline from early 2020 to late May and June is apparent among all key subgroups.

Trump now has approval ratings below the majority level among groups that are typically more favorable to him, including non-Hispanic white Americans, men, older Americans, Southerners and those without a college degree.

He does retain majority support among white Americans without a college degree, at 57%, albeit down from 66% among the group in January to early May.

The accompanying table shows the changes in Trump's job approval among demographic subgroups over the past month compared with the first five months of 2020.

	January to early May	Late May to June	Change
	%	%	pct. pts.
U.S. adults	47	39	-8
Gender
Men	53	46	-7
Women	42	32	-10
Age
18-29	39	30	-9
30-49	46	36	-10
50-64	52	43	-9
65+	51	47	-4
Race/Ethnicity
Non-Hispanic white	57	48	-9
Non-Hispanic Black	16	10	-6
Hispanic	34	26	-8
Education
College degree	37	30	-7
No college degree	52	44	-8
Race/Ethnicity + Education
White, college degree	42	33	-9
White, no college degree	66	57	-9
Region
East	40	27	-13
Midwest	51	40	-11
South	53	48	-5
West	41	35	-6
January to early May figures based on an average of ratings from eight polls. Late May to June figures based on an average of ratings from two polls.
Gallup

Bottom Line

The drop in Trump's job approval rating puts him in the company of George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter -- the last two one-term presidents, who also had sub-40% approval ratings in June of their reelection years. Earlier this year, Trump's approval ratings were closer to those of George W. Bush and Barack Obama at a similar point in their presidencies, the last two presidents who won a second term.

Trump can hope for an outcome similar to the 1948 election, when voters elected Harry Truman to a second term with a June approval rating (40%) only slightly better than what Trump currently has.

There is no consistent historical pattern for the trajectory of presidential approval ratings from June through Election Day in incumbent reelection years. About half of the presidents whose approval ratings 优蜜传媒measured after June showed some improvement, and the other half did not.

The Truman exception aside (the 40% June approval rating was the last pre-election measure by Gallup), Obama had the largest increase through the summer and fall of a reelection year, with six points. If Trump duplicates that feat and gets his approval to the mid-40s, his reelection would still be very much in doubt. The absence of significant third-party candidates that could splinter the anti-incumbent vote -- as happened in 1948, 1980 and 1992 -- makes getting closer to majority job approval even more critical for Trump.

Explore President Trump's approval ratings and compare them with those of past presidents in the 优蜜传媒Presidential Job Approval Center.

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