Presidential job approval has proven to be a reliable correlate of midterm election outcomes. On average, the lower the presidential job approval rating, the higher the probability that the president’s party will lose House seats in the midterm election. The chart displays the trend in presidential job approval for midterm election years going back to 1990. President George W. Bush’s current approval rating of 38% is one of the lowest of these five years, suggesting a difficult political environment for Republican candidates for the House this November. Bush’s job approval has been on a gradual upward trajectory since May.
Presidential Job Approval
(Percent saying approve)
Among National Adults
|
Year |
Election |
Net change in Dem. seats |
Jan. |
Feb. |
Mar. |
Apr. |
May |
Jun. |
Jul. |
Aug. |
Sep. (1) |
Sep. (2) |
Sep. (3) |
Oct. (1) |
Oct. (2) |
Oct. (3) |
Final Poll |
|
1974 |
59-41 D |
+43 |
27 |
27 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
24 |
48 |
66 |
50 |
53 |
||||
|
1978 |
55-46 D |
-11 |
54 |
49 |
49 |
41 |
42 |
43 |
40 |
41 |
42 |
45 |
48 |
49 |
|||
|
1982 |
56-44 D |
+26 |
48 |
47 |
46 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
|||||
|
1986 |
-- |
+5 |
64 |
63 |
62 |
68 |
63 |
63 |
61 |
62 |
63 |
||||||
|
1990 |
54-46 D |
+9 |
80 |
73 |
71 |
68 |
65 |
68 |
62 |
75 |
76 |
73 |
67 |
66 |
55 |
54 |
|
|
1994 |
54-47 R |
-53 |
55 |
53 |
51 |
50 |
51 |
46 |
43 |
41 |
39 |
42 |
44 |
42 |
41 |
48 |
|
|
1998 |
50-50 R |
+5 |
62 |
66 |
65 |
65 |
64 |
60 |
63 |
63 |
62 |
63 |
64 |
63 |
65 |
65 |
|
|
2002 |
52-48 R |
-3 |
84 |
82 |
79 |
76 |
76 |
73 |
72 |
67 |
66 |
70 |
67 |
67 |
62 |
67 |
63 |
|
2006 |
-- |
-- |
43 |
40 |
37 |
35 |
32 |
37 |
40 |
40 |
39 |
44 |
37 |
37 |
37 |
38 |
|
NOTE: August 1974 presidential approval results represent the average of Richard Nixon's final approval rating (24%) and Gerald Ford's first approval rating (71%). |
President George W. Bush's Job Approval Ratings for 2006
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2006 Nov 2-5 |
38 |
56 |
6 |
|
2006 Oct 20-22 |
37 |
58 |
4 |
|
2006 Oct 9-12 |
37 |
57 |
6 |
|
2006 Oct 6-8 |
37 |
59 |
4 |
|
2006 Sep 15-17 |
44 |
51 |
5 |
|
2006 Sep 7-10 |
39 |
56 |
5 |
|
2006 Aug 18-20 |
42 |
54 |
4 |
|
2006 Aug 7-10 |
37 |
59 |
4 |
|
2006 Jul 28-30 |
40 |
56 |
4 |
|
2006 Jul 21-23 |
37 |
59 |
4 |
|
2006 Jul 6-9 |
40 |
55 |
5 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
37 |
60 |
3 |
|
2006 Jun 9-11 |
38 |
56 |
6 |
|
2006 Jun 1-4 |
36 |
57 |
6 |
|
2006 May 8-11 |
33 |
61 |
6 |
|
2006 May 5-7 |
31 |
65 |
5 |
|
2006 Apr 28-30 |
34 |
63 |
3 |
|
2006 Apr 10-13 |
36 |
59 |
5 |
|
2006 Apr 7-9 |
37 |
60 |
3 |
|
2006 Mar 13-16 |
37 |
59 |
5 |
|
2006 Mar 10-12 |
36 |
60 |
4 |
|
2006 Feb 28-Mar 1 |
38 |
60 |
2 |
|
2006 Feb 9-12 |
39 |
56 |
4 |
|
2006 Feb 6-9 |
42 |
55 |
4 |
|
2006 Jan 20-22 |
43 |
54 |
4 |
|
2006 Jan 9-12 |
43 |
53 |
4 |
|
2006 Jan 6-8 |
43 |
54 |
3 |