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Bush Approval on Iraq Dips; Economy Approval Up Slightly

Bush Approval on Iraq Dips; Economy Approval Up Slightly

by

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/优蜜传媒poll, conducted Jan. 7-9, updates President George W. Bush's perceived job performance on a number of issues in the news. With his overall job approval rating standing at 52% -- about par for the president over the past year -- the poll shows Bush also receiving majority public support for his handling of the tsunami disaster, for terrorism, and for education.

Opinion of Bush's handling of the economy is closely divided in the new survey, but his 50% approval score represents the recent high-water mark for Bush on this indicator. Approval of Bush on the economy averaged only 45% for all of 2004, and has not reached roughly the 50% level since September (when 49% approved).

In addition to the economy, Bush's ratings are also closely divided for the environment, taxes, and foreign affairs: 47% to 49% approve of his job performance in these areas, and 45% to 49% disapprove.

The public's assessment of Bush skews negative for the situation in Iraq, Social Security, healthcare policy, immigration, and, most of all, the federal budget deficit.

Job Approval Is Steady

Bush's overall job approval rating is exactly the same today as in the previous poll, conducted Jan. 3-5. It is also consistent with his approval ratings for the past year, which have fluctuated in a fairly narrow range around the 2004 midpoint.

Across 35 individual job approval ratings in 2004, Bush's average score was 51% and his average disapproval score was 46%. Bush's highest overall job ratings in 2004 (60% and 59% approval) were both recorded in January. His lowest approval rating (46%) was recorded in mid-May (a time of significant difficulties in Iraq).

Iraq Job Approval Rating Retreats

Bush's performance on specific issues has also received fairly steady evaluation by the American public. Still, of the five issues that were last updated in November 2004, two -- Iraq and the economy -- do show significant change.

Bush's approval rating for his handling of the Iraq situation is now 42%, down from 47% in early November. Approval of Bush on Iraq is now comparable to the record low levels seen last spring, coincident with the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal and a period of heavy U.S. casualties in Iraq.

Also, the 50% approval of Bush on the economy appears to be a significant, albeit small, increase, given that the three previous readings (from September through November) averaged 47%.

At the same time, there has been virtually no change in Bush's ratings on terrorism, foreign affairs, or healthcare policy.

Longer-Term Changes

The last time the vast majority of these issues were updated simultaneously was March 2002. It is difficult to compare the 2002 ratings directly with today's ratings, because Bush's overall job approval rating at that time was extraordinarily high -- registering 79% -- as a result of public reaction to the 9/11 attacks. Presidential approval ratings on specific issues tend to benefit from the halo effect of high overall job approval.

Still, there are some interesting distinctions in the changes among issues between March 2002 and today.

  • Public approval of Bush's handling of terrorism (down 28 points since March 2002) and foreign affairs (down 24 points) has fallen to roughly the same degree as the 27-point drop seen in his overall approval rating.

  • His approval ratings on several other issues -- the federal budget deficit, the economy, taxes, healthcare policy, and education -- have fallen by a smaller but still substantial amount (ranging from 11 to 19 points).

  • Bush's approval ratings on Social Security and the environment have fallen by fewer than 10 points. However, these were among his least positive issues in March 2002, and ones that experienced little to no inflation from the 9/11 effect; thus, they had less room to fall in the past three years.

 

Trend in Bush Job/Issue Approval Ratings


March 2002

January 2005

Change

%

%

pct. pts.

Overall job approval

79

52

-27

 

 

 

Terrorism

86

58

-28

Foreign affairs

71

47

-24

The federal budget deficit

51

32

-19

The economy

65

50

-15

Taxes

64

49

-15

Healthcare policy

52

40

-12

Education

63

52

-11

Social Security

47

41

-6

The environment

53

49

-4

The situation in Iraq

Not asked

42

--

Immigration

Not asked

34

--



Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,008 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 7-9, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?


Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2005

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

52

44

4

 

 

 

2005 Jan 3-5

52

44

4

2004

 

 

 

2004 Dec 17-19

49

46

5

2004 Dec 5-8

53

44

3

2004 Nov 19-21

55

42

3

2004 Nov 7-10

53

44

3

2004 Oct 29-31

48

47

5

2004 Oct 22-24

51

46

3

2004 Oct 14-16

51

47

2

2004 Oct 11-14

48

49

3

2004 Oct 9-10

47

49

4

2004 Oct 1-3

50

48

2

2004 Sep 24-26

54

44

2

2004 Sep 13-15

52

45

3

2004 Sep 3-5

52

46

2

2004 Aug 23-25

49

47

4

2004 Aug 9-11

51

46

3

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

48

49

3

2004 Jul 19-21

49

47

4

2004 Jul 8-11

47

49

4

2004 Jun 21-23

48

49

3

2004 Jun 3-6

49

49

2

2004 May 21-23

47

49

4

2004 May 7-9

46

51

3

2004 May 2-4

49

48

3

2004 Apr 16-18

52

45

3

2004 Apr 5-8

52

45

3

2004 Mar 26-28

53

44

3

2004 Mar 8-11

50

47

3

2004 Mar 5-7

49

48

3

2004 Feb 16-17

51

46

3

2004 Feb 9-12

51

46

3

2004 Feb 6-8

52

44

4

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

49

48

3

2004 Jan 12-15

53

44

3

2004 Jan 9-11

59

38

3

2004 Jan 2-5

60

35

5

Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2003

%

%

%

2003 Dec 15-16

63

34

3

2003 Dec 11-14

56

41

3

2003 Dec 5-7

55

43

2

2003 Nov 14-16

50

47

3

2003 Nov 10-12

51

45

4

2003 Nov 3-5

54

43

3

2003 Oct 24-26

53

42

5

2003 Oct 10-12

56

40

4

2003 Oct 6-8

55

42

3

2003 Sep 19-21

50

47

3

2003 Sep 8-10

52

43

5

2003 Aug 25-26

59

37

4

2003 Aug 4-6

60

36

4

2003 Jul 25-27

58

38

4

2003 Jul 18-20

59

38

3

2003 Jul 7-9

62

34

4

2003 Jun 27-29

61

36

3

2003 Jun 12-15

63

33

4

2003 Jun 9-10

62

34

4

2003 May 30-Jun 1

64

32

4

2003 May 19-21

66

30

4

2003 Apr 22-23

70

26

4

2003 Apr 14-16

71

24

5

2003 Apr 7-9

69

26

5

2003 Apr 5-6

70

27

3

2003 Mar 29-30

71

26

3

2003 Mar 24-25

69

27

4

2003 Mar 22-23

71

25

4

2003 Mar 14-15

58

38

4

2003 Mar 3-5

57

37

6

2003 Feb 24-26

57

37

6

2003 Feb 17-19

58

37

5

2003 Feb 7-9

61

34

5

2003 Feb 3-6

59

35

6

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

61

35

4

2003 Jan 23-25

60

36

4

2003 Jan 20-22

58

36

6

2003 Jan 20-22

58

36

6

2003 Jan 13-16

61

34

5

2003 Jan 10-12

58

37

5

2003 Jan 3-5

63

32

5

Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2002

%

%

%

2002 Dec 19-22

61

32

7

2002 Dec 16-17

63

33

4

2002 Dec 9-10

63

32

5

2002 Dec 5-8

64

29

7

2002 Nov 22-24

65

28

7

2002 Nov 11-14

66

26

8

2002 Nov 8-10

68

27

5

2002 Oct 31-Nov 3

63

29

8

2002 Oct 21-22

67

28

5

2002 Oct 14-17

62

31

7

2002 Oct 3-6

67

28

5

2002 Sep 23-26

68

26

6

2002 Sep 20-22

66

30

4

2002 Sep 13-16

70

26

4

2002 Sep 5-8

66

30

4

2002 Sep 2-4

66

29

5

2002 Aug 19-21

65

28

7

2002 Aug 5-8

68

26

6

2002 Jul 29-31

71

23

6

2002 Jul 26-28

69

26

5

2002 Jul 22-24

69

24

7

2002 Jul 9-11

73

21

6

2002 Jul 5-8

76

18

6

2002 Jun 28-30

76

19

5

2002 Jun 21-23

73

21

6

2002 Jun 17-19

74

20

6

2002 Jun 7-8

74

18

8

2002 Jun 3-6

70

23

7

2002 May 28-29

77

17

6

2002 May 20-22

76

17

7

2002 May 6-9

76

19

5

2002 Apr 29-May 1

77

20

3

2002 Apr 22-24

77

17

6

2002 Apr 8-11

75

20

5

2002 Apr 5-7

76

19

5

2002 Mar 22-24

79

17

4

2002 Mar 18-20

79

16

5

2002 Mar 8-9

80

14

6

2002 Mar 4-7

77

18

5

2002 Mar 1-3

81

14

5

2002 Feb 8-10

82

14

4

2002 Feb 4-6

82

14

4

2002 Jan 25-27

84

13

3

2002 Jan 11-14

83

13

4

2002 Jan 7-9

84

12

4

Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2001

%

%

%

2001 Dec 14-16

86

11

3

2001 Dec 6-9

86

10

4

2001 Nov 26-27

87

8

5

2001 Nov 8-11

87

9

4

2001 Nov 2-4

87

9

4

2001 Oct 19-21

88

9

3

2001 Oct 11-14

89

8

3

2001 Oct 5-6

87

10

3

2001 Sep 21-22

90

6

4

2001 Sep 14-15

86

10

4

2001 Sep 7-10

51

39

10

2001 Aug 24-26

55

36

9

2001 Aug 16-19

57

34

9

2001 Aug 10-12

57

35

8

2001 Aug 3-5

55

35

10

2001 Jul 19-22

56

33

11

2001 Jul 10-11

57

35

8

2001 Jun 28-Jul 1

52

34

14

2001 Jun 11-17

55

33

12

2001 Jun 8-10

55

35

10

2001 May 18-20

56

36

8

2001 May 10-14

56

31

13

2001 May 7-9

53

33

14

2001 Apr 20-22

62

29

9

2001 Apr 6-8

59

30

11

2001 Mar 26-28

53

29

18

2001 Mar 9-11

58

29

13

2001 Mar 5-7

63

22

15

2001 Feb 19-21

62

21

17

2001 Feb 9-11

57

25

18

2001 Feb 1-4

57

25

18

Next,

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A.     The economy


Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2005

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

50

48

2

2004

 

 

 

2004 Nov 7-10

47

51

2

2004 Oct 14-16

46

51

3

2004 Sep 24-26

49

48

3

2004 Aug 9-11

46

51

3

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

47

50

3

2004 Jun 3-6

41

58

1

2004 May 7-9 ^

41

56

3

2004 May 2-4

41

56

3

2004 Apr 16-18

46

52

2

2004 Mar 26-28

42

55

3

2004 Feb 9-12

45

52

3

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

43

54

3

2004 Jan 2-5

54

43

3

2003

 

 

 

2003 Dec 5-7

48

49

3

2003 Nov 3-5

47

50

3

2003 Oct 6-8

42

55

3

2003 Sep 8-10

45

53

2

2003 Aug 25-26

45

52

3

2003 Jul 25-27

46

51

3

2003 Jul 18-20

45

51

4

2003 Jul 7-9

48

50

2

2003 Jun 12-15

48

48

4

2003 May 5-7

53

44

3

2003 Apr 14-16

49

45

6

2003 Mar 29-30

49

47

4


Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2003

%

%

%

2003 Mar 24-25

52

42

6

2003 Mar 14-15

44

52

4

2003 Feb 3-6

44

52

4

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

47

48

5

2003 Jan 23-25

46

49

5

2003 Jan 10-12

48

47

5

2003 Jan 3-5

49

47

4

2002

 

 

 

2002 Dec 9-10

49

47

4

2002 Nov 8-10

55

39

6

2002 Oct 21-22

49

44

7

2002 Jul 26-28

52

43

5

2002 Jul 5-8

58

36

6

2002 Jun 28-30

63

33

4

2002 May 20-22

61

29

10

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

60

33

7

2002 Mar 22-24

65

29

6

2002 Mar 1-3

64

31

5

2002 Feb 4-6

66

30

4

2002 Jan 25-27

64

30

6

2001

 

 

 

2001 Nov 2-4 ^

71

24

5

2001 Oct 5-6

72

23

5

2001 Jul 10-11

54

36

10

2001 May 18-20

51

41

8

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

55

38

7

2001 Mar 9-11

55

32

13

2001 Feb 1-4

53

27

20


^ Asked of a half sample

Q.2 (BUSH ISSUES APPROVAL) CONTINUED

B.  Foreign affairs


Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2005

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

47

49

4

2004

 

 

 

2004 Nov 7-10

47

50

3

2004 Sep 24-26 ^

49

48

3

2004 Aug 9-11

44

51

5

2004 Jun 3-6

44

54

2

2004 May 2-4

42

53

5

2004 Feb 9-12

46

52

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

46

51

3

2004 Jan 2-5

58

39

3

2003

 

 

 

2003 Dec 5-7

53

43

4

2003 Nov 3-5

46

50

4

2003 Oct 6-8

49

49

2

2003 Sep 8-10

52

45

3

2003 Aug 25-26

55

42

3

2003 Jul 25-27

54

42

4

2003 Jul 18-20

54

41

5

2003 Jul 7-9

55

42

3

2003 Jun 12-15

58

39

3

2003 May 5-7

68

30

2

2003 Apr 14-16

65

31

4

2003 Mar 29-30

64

31

5

2003 Mar 24-25

65

30

5

2003 Mar 14-15

53

43

4


Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2003

%

%

%

2003 Feb 3-6

49

46

5

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

57

39

4

2003 Jan 23-25

50

45

5

2003 Jan 10-12

53

42

5

2003 Jan 3-5

60

35

5

2002

 

 

 

2002 Dec 9-10

59

35

6

2002 Nov 8-10

59

36

5

2002 Oct 21-22

58

35

7

2002 Jul 26-28

63

30

7

2002 Jul 5-8

71

25

4

2002 Jun 28-30

66

27

7

2002 May 20-22

70

23

7

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

70

24

6

2002 Mar 22-24

71

22

7

2002 Mar 1-3

78

17

5

2002 Feb 4-6

79

16

5

2002 Jan 25-27

83

14

3

2001

 

 

 

2001 Oct 5-6

81

14

5

2001 Jul 10-11

54

33

13

2001 May 18-20

55

35

10

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

56

31

13

2001 Mar 9-11

52

27

21

2001 Feb 1-4

46

21

33


^ Asked of a half sample

Q.2 (BUSH ISSUES APPROVAL) CONTINUED

C. The situation in Iraq

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

42

56

2

 

 

 

2004 Nov 7-10

47

51

2

2004 Oct 14-16

46

52

2

2004 Sep 24-26

48

49

3

2004 Aug 9-11

45

52

3

2004 Jun 21-23 ^        

42

56

2

2004 Jun 3-6

41

57

2

2004 May 7-9 ^

41

58

1

2004 May 2-4

42

55

3

2004 Apr 16-18

48

49

3

2004 Mar 26-28

51

47

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

46

53

1

2004 Jan 2-5

61

36

3

2003 Dec 5-7

50

47

3

2003 Nov 3-5

45

54

1

2003 Oct 6-8

47

50

3

2003 Sep 8-10

51

47

2

2003 Aug 25-26

57

41

2

2003 Jul 25-27

60

38

2

2003 Jul 18-20

57

39

4

2003 Jul 7-9

58

39

3

2003 Jun 12-15

63

34

3

2003 Apr 14-16

76

21

3

2003 Mar 29-30

71

27

2

2003 Mar 24-25

71

26

3

2003 Mar 14-15

56

41

3

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

54

42

4

2003 Jan 3-5

55

40

5

2002 Dec 9-10

55

39

6

2002 Oct 21-22

52

40

8

 

^ Asked of a half sample

-- continued --

-- continued --

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

D. Healthcare policy

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

40

54

6

 

 

 

2004 Nov 7-10

37

57

6

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

35

57

8

2004 Jan 2-5

43

49

8

2003 Aug 25-26

43

48

9

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

46

44

10

2003 Jan 10-12

41

44

15

2002 Jul 26-28

47

40

13

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

52

37

11

 

 

 

^ Asked of a half sample

E. Terrorism

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

58

39

3

 

 

 

2004 Nov 7-10

60

37

3

2004 Oct 14-16

57

41

2

2004 Sep 24-26

62

36

2

2004 Aug 9-11

57

40

3

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

54

44

2

2004 Jun 3-6

56

43

1

2004 May 7-9 ^

54

43

3

2004 May 2-4

52

45

3

2004 Apr 16-18

60

39

1

2004 Mar 26-28

58

39

3

2003 Dec 5-7

65

33

2

2003 Sep 8-10

64

34

2

2003 Aug 25-26

66

31

3

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

71

26

3

2002 May 20-22 ^

83

13

4

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

83

13

4

2002 Mar 20-22 † ‡

86

12

2

2001 Nov 2-4 † ‡

86

12

2

 

 

 

^ Asked of a half sample

† WORDING: U.S. military action abroad to fight terrorism

‡ Alternate wording asked in Nov 2-4 and Mar 20-22 polls
produced similar results; data presented are the average of
two wordings: "efforts to prevent future acts of terrorism in
the U.S." and "U.S. military action abroad to fight terrorism."

F. Immigration

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

 

 

 

2005 Jan 7-9

34%

54

12

G. Social Security

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

41

52

7

 

 

 

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

47

40

13

2001 Jul 10-11

49

35

16

2001 Mar 9-11

49

31

20

 

 

 

^ Asked of a half sample

H. Taxes

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

49

47

4

 

 

 

2004 Jan 2-5

57

38

5

2003 Aug 25-26

52

44

4

2003 Mar 29-30

52

41

7

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

52

42

6

2003 Jan 10-12

49

45

6

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

64

29

7

2001 Jul 10-11

60

33

7

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

54

39

7

2001 Mar 9-11

56

35

9

 

 

 

^ Asked of a half sample

I. The federal budget deficit

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

32

63

5

 

 

 

2003 Dec 5-7

32

60

8

2003 Aug 25-26

39

55

6

2003 Mar 29-30

45

45

10

2003 Jan 10-12 †

43

47

10

2002 Mar 22-24 ^ †

51

37

12

2001 Apr 20-22 †

52

37

11

 

 

 

† WORDING: The federal budget

^ Asked of a half sample

J. Education

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

52

43

5

 

 

 

2004 Aug 9-11

47

47

6

2004 Jan 2-5

56

35

9

2003 Jan 10-12

57

30

13

2002 Jul 26-28

62

27

11

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

63

26

11

2001 Jul 10-11

63

25

12

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

62

28

10

2001 Mar 9-11

65

22

13

 

 

 

^ Asked of a half sample

K. The environment

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 7-9

49

45

6

 

 

 

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

53

37

10

2002 Mar 22-24 ^

53

36

11

2001 Jul 10-11

46

42

12

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

46

44

10

 

 

 

^ Asked of a half sample

SUMMARY TABLE: BUSH APPROVAL ON ISSUES

2005 Jan 7-9
(sorted by "approve")


Approve


Disapprove

%

%

Terrorism

58

39

Education

52

43

Overall job approval

52

44

The economy

50

48

The environment

49

45

Taxes

49

47

Foreign affairs

47

49

The situation in Iraq

42

56

Social Security

41

52

Healthcare policy

40

54

Immigration

34

54

The federal budget deficit

32

63

31. Overall, would you say you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush's reaction to the recent earthquake and tsunami in Asia?

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

 

 

 

2005 Jan 7-9

75%

20

5


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