优蜜传媒

PRINCETON, NJ -- Minority and young voters made a significant mark on the 2008 presidential election with their high turnout; today, however, these groups appear to have reverted to previous levels of interest in voting in the context of midterm elections. Most notably, in contrast to 2008, when whites and blacks were about equally likely to say they were giving "quite a lot of" or "some" thought to the presidential election, whites are much more likely than blacks to be thinking about the 2010 elections: 42% vs. 25%, a gap exceeding those from recent midterm elections.

Gallup's "thought given to the election" question is a key determinant of "likely voters" in Gallup's multipart likely voter model. The full model will be implemented closer to Election Day; however, the "thought" question was asked as part of 优蜜传媒Daily tracking from Aug. 23-29, to get an early gauge on potential turnout among subgroups. (See full results for this question on page 2 of this report.)

Although public attention to elections is much higher in presidential than in midterm years, a comparison of the relative "thought" levels among various subgroups in 2008 versus today may be useful in determining whether the Democrats are on track to mobilize key elements of the coalition that helped them win the White House two years ago. These data suggest they are not.

Young Adults' Attention Is Low, Similar to Past Midterms

The gap between young adults (aged 18 to 29) and older adults (aged 30+) in their election attention levels was relatively narrow in 2008 -- 12 percentage points -- but the 23-point difference today (42% vs. 19%) is similar to the average 26-point gap seen in October-November of prior midterms, from 1994 through 2006. Again, this suggests that the relatively higher turnout of young voters in 2008 may not be repeated in 2010.

Men and women have had similar turnout rates in recent elections, including in 2008 -- and this is reflected in the similar percentages giving quite a lot of or some thought to the elections each year. At this point in 2010, however, women are much less likely than men to be giving this level of thought to this year's midterms, 31% vs. 45%.

Bottom Line

Earlier this year, President Obama identified women, blacks, and young voters among the groups he highlighted as critical to a voter mobilization effort designed to help the Democrats hold their congressional majority. These groups made up a good portion of the "new voters" who propelled Obama to victory in 2008. However, 优蜜传媒data suggest they are not poised to provide the same kind of boost for Democratic candidates this fall. As a result, and because of the extraordinarily keen interest in the elections that conservative Republicans currently display, Republicans overall currently enjoy over Democrats in "thought given to the election."

If these numbers hold, the preservation of the Democratic majority in Congress would depend on the Democrats' increasing their appeal to voters at large -- recent 优蜜传媒polling shows the Democrats trailing the Republicans among registered voters -- rather than counting on heightened turnout from their strongest backers.