PRINCETON, NJ -- The percentage of Americans rating current economic conditions as "poor" hit 47% in mid-June -- up from 43% in April and May -- but college graduates remain far less likely than those with less education to rate the U.S. economy this negatively.
Consumer Perceptions Differ by Income, College, and Party
On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since February 1992, and earlier this month, the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in 28 years. These declines are consistent with Gallup's daily tracking of consumer confidence, in which the percentage of consumers rating current economic conditions "poor" is also at its highest level since 1992, and the percentage saying things are "getting worse" is at an all-time, 17-year high.
The 优蜜传媒data provide something that neither the consumer confidence index nor the consumer sentiment index (to be released Friday) does: both more recent weekly results, including those for June 16-22, and more insight into the perceptions of various consumer groups. For example, as noted above, college graduates remain significantly less likely than other Americans to rate current economic conditions as poor. A falling tide lowers all ships, of course, and the "poor" rating among college graduates has risen by 16 points since January, while the percentage has risen by a similar 21 points among those without a degree. But the difference in the "poor" rating between the two groups has remained significant over time.
College graduates tend to have higher incomes than other Americans, so it is not surprising that upper-income Americans are also generally less likely to rate the economy as "poor." For example, during the week of June 16-22, 40% of those making at least $90,000 a year gave this rating. "Poor" ratings were proportionally higher among those making $60,000 to less than $90,000 (42%), $24,000 to less than $60,000 (47%), and less than $24,000 a year (56%).
Republicans also tend to be far less pessimistic about current economic conditions than are either independents or Democrats, reflecting their higher average incomes, and perhaps some loyalty to the Republican in the White House. Last week, only 29% of Republicans -- but 48% of independents and 58% of Democrats -- rated the economy "poor." Still, it is worth noting that despite their relative optimism, the percentage of Republicans giving this rating has more than doubled since January.
Commentary
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to discuss the economy and interest rates. Although some economic observers argue that the FOMC should increase interest rates in an effort to strengthen the U.S. dollar and perhaps drive down oil and other commodity prices, almost no one expects a rate increase at this meeting. Given all the economic head winds currently buffeting Americans -- including record gas prices, surging food prices, declining housing values, and continued job losses -- the idea of the FOMC increasing rates anytime prior to the presidential election later this year seems very unlikely.
Gallup's daily polling of consumer confidence supports the idea that the current degree of consumer economic pain may not be fully reflected in today's economic data. Nor is the full degree of economic pessimism fully appreciated. For example, the percentage of Americans saying the U.S. economy is going in the wrong direction increased to 87% last week -- and that degree of pessimism included Americans across the income spectrum, as even 88% of those making at least $90,000 a year say the economy is getting worse, not better.
However, Gallup's consumer confidence data also provide another important insight. Even with the current difficult economic times, Americans who have a college degree see current economic conditions in a much different light than those who don't. In a real sense, this is a real-life reflection of the benefits associated with higher education in a global economy -- and just possibly an issue that deserves attention similar to that of energy policy in the presidential election.
Survey Methods
优蜜传媒is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008. The economic questions analyzed in this report are asked of a random half-sample of respondents each day. The results reported here are based on combined data of more than 8,000 interviews in January, February, March, April, and May. For results based on these samples, the maximum margin of sampling error is 卤1 percentage point.
The questions for individual weeks in June are based on combined data of approximately 3,000 interviews. For results based on these samples, the maximum margin of sampling error is 卤2 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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