优蜜传媒

As the nation enters the 2004 election year, 优蜜传媒data show the country is evenly divided in its partisan affiliation -- 45.5% of Americans identify as Republicans or say they lean toward the Republican Party, and 45.2% identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party. The remaining 9% identify themselves as independents and express no proclivity to either of the major parties.

These results, based on more than 40,000 interviews conducted throughout 2003, are similar to what 优蜜传媒found in 2002, when 45.4% of Americans identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party and 45.3% did so toward the Republican Party. But the results from the last two years represent a major shift in American politics -- the Democratic Party long held a consistent advantage in overall partisan identification in the United States. Ten years ago, Democrats enjoyed a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republicans, 49% to 40%. Historical 优蜜传媒data suggest the Democratic margin was even larger before then.

However, in no sense does the closeness of the national average partisanship suggest that Americans are roughly equally divided across the nation. Partisanship continues to vary considerably by state, and this manifests itself in states' voters' consistent favoring of one party's presidential candidates over the other's. By now, the terms "red states" and "blue states" are familiar to many. Red states are those that have tended to support Republican presidential candidates in the last three elections, and are largely found in the South and Mountain West part of the country. Blue states are those that have tended to support Democratic candidates, and are generally found in the Northeast and on the Pacific Coast.

States' political leanings are apparent in 优蜜传媒polling data. In every poll it conducts, 优蜜传媒asks Americans which party they support. Those who say they are independent or express no partisan preference are asked whether they lean toward either of the major parties.

Decades of voting behavior research show that those who identify as political independents but say they lean toward one of the two parties behave much like partisans at election time. That is, a voter who says he or she is politically independent but leans toward the Republican Party is likely to vote for Republican candidates.

In 2003, 优蜜传媒conducted more than 40,000 interviews with randomly selected Americans in the continental United States. Combining all these data allows for generally reliable estimates of partisanship within most states.

State Partisanship

The following table shows the partisan breakdown for each state, ordered from the states with the greatest Republican advantage to the states with the greatest Democratic advantage. These partisan estimates combine Republicans and Republican leaners into the Republican category, and Democrats and Democratic leaners into the Democratic category. Independents who do not lean toward either major party are omitted from the table.

The Republican advantage is the difference in the percentage of Republicans/Republican leaners and Democrats/Democratic leaners in each state, with positive scores indicating a Republican advantage and negative scores a Democratic advantage in the state.

Partisan Identification by State, 2003 Gallup Polls

State	Number of interviews	% Republican + lean	% Democrat + lean	Republican advantage
Utah	368	61.2	31.6	29.6
Idaho	235	59.6	32.2	27.5
Wyoming	106	60.2	35.4	24.8
North Dakota	137	57.7	34.5	23.2
Nebraska	275	57.9	35.7	22.2
South Dakota	102	57.9	39.3	18.7
Kansas	477	55.0	37.4	17.6
New Hampshire	248	52.7	36.9	15.8
Texas	2,513	51.9	38.1	13.8
South Carolina	553	52.2	39.5	12.6
Oklahoma	552	52.7	40.8	11.9
Alabama	668	51.0	39.3	11.7
Arizona	723	51.9	40.6	11.3
Mississippi	328	51.7	42.0	9.7
Virginia	1052	49.5	40.2	9.3
Indiana	963	49.4	40.6	8.9
Colorado	758	49.3	41.2	8.1
Georgia	1,110	48.8	42.6	6.2
Tennessee	911	49.8	43.8	6.1
Montana	211	45.6	39.5	6.0
Missouri	909	47.9	43.5	4.4
North Carolina	1,349	47.9	45.0	2.9
Florida	2,248	47.1	44.2	2.9
Nevada	310	45.9	43.2	2.7
Ohio	1,726	45.4	44.5	1.0
New Mexico	290	46.7	46.0	0.7
Washington	1,044	44.4	43.8	0.6
Maine	260	44.2	44.2	0.0
New Jersey	1,170	44.1	45.0	-0.9
Pennsylvania	2,189	45.1	46.2	-1.1
Minnesota	799	44.2	46.8	-2.5
Wisconsin	1,033	43.0	46.0	-3.0
Louisiana	621	44.7	48.1	-3.4
Kentucky	709	44.0	48.7	-4.7
Michigan	1,331	41.8	47.0	-5.2
Delaware	121	41.2	46.5	-5.3
West Virginia	349	43.2	49.6	-6.5
California	4,271	42.2	49.4	-7.1
Oregon	641	40.2	48.0	-7.7
Illinois	1,356	40.9	49.4	-8.5
Rhode Island	208	37.5	46.3	-8.8
Iowa	514	38.0	47.0	-9.0
Maryland	695	41.4	52.4	-11.0
Massachusetts	959	37.4	50.5	-13.1
Connecticut	483	35.9	51.4	-15.5
New York	2,535	36.6	53.1	-16.5
Arkansas	433	35.5	53.7	-18.2
Vermont	131	35.9	54.9	-19.0
District of Columbia	74	21.3	72.0	-50.7

Overall, the data indicate that 20 states are solidly Republican (for purposes of this analysis, the standard is an advantage of six percentage points or more), 12 states plus the District of Columbia are Democratic, and 16 are fairly competitive (show a slight preference for one party but by less than six percentage points).

While the Democrats have an advantage in fewer states, they have the edge in larger states such as California, New York, and Illinois. Of the six most populous states, Republicans only have a clear advantage in Texas, while partisanship is fairly evenly distributed in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

Despite the numerical Republican advantage in states, those states' 2004 electoral votes total 169, nearly the same as those in states in which Democrats enjoy a comfortable advantage (171).

The closely matched states -- those in which the parties are within six percentage points of each other -- have a total of 191 electoral votes. (优蜜传媒does not interview in Alaska and Hawaii. Hawaii has four electoral votes, which usually go Democratic, and Alaska has three, which usually go Republican.) Even further breaking down the competitive states into those that tilt toward the GOP (where Republicans have an edge of one to five percentage points) or to the Democratic Party shows an even distribution. Of the 191 electoral votes in competitive states, 78 are in states that tilt Republican, 78 are in states that tilt Democratic, and 55 are in states in which partisanship is roughly even.

All else being equal, the parties are evenly matched in terms of political partisanship on a state-by-state basis, especially from an electoral perspective.

Utah is the most Republican state, both in terms of the percentage of residents identifying as Republicans, and in the Republican-over-Democrat advantage in that state. Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Nebraska all show Republicans with at least a 20-point edge over Democrats. Additionally, South Dakota and Kansas show at least 55% of state residents identifying as Republicans or leaning toward the GOP.

The only place in which Democrats have an edge greater than 20 points over Republicans is in the District of Columbia (though this is based on a limited number of interviews, Democrats clearly have a significant edge among residents of the nation's capital). Vermont, Arkansas, New York, and Connecticut all show 15-point advantages or greater for the Democratic Party. In addition to those states, Massachusetts and Maryland have a majority of residents identifying as Democrats or leaning toward the Democratic Party.

The 优蜜传媒data suggest that partisanship is most evenly divided in Maine, Washington, New Mexico, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All these states show the parties within one percentage point of each other. In North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, no more than three percentage points divides the parties.

Historical Comparison

Ten years ago, the Democratic Party had a solid advantage in national public support over the Republican Party. The partisan distribution of the states also reflected this. The table below shows how partisanship changed at the state level between 1993 and 2003. The number of states showing a solid Republican preference has nearly tripled from 7 to 20, while the number of solid Democratic states has been nearly halved, from 25 to 14. Everything else being equal -- which is not always the case in presidential elections -- Republicans are now starting out with substantially more "natural" electoral votes than they did in 1993 -- 169 compared with 35.

Change in Partisanship Composition of U.S. States, 1993 vs. 2003

	1993		2003
	Number of states	1991-2000 Electoral votes represented	Number of states	2001-2010 Electoral votes represented
Solid Democratic states	25*	326	14*	171
Closely matched states	17	170	16	191
Solid Republican states	7	35	20	169
*Includes District of Columbia Note: Hawaii and Alaska not included

An analysis of each state shows how things have changed in the past decade. The vast majority of states -- 41 in total -- have shown at least some movement toward the Republican Party. In that same time, just six states have moved toward the Democratic Party, while New York and the District of Columbia have shown no change.

The table organizes the states by region to help illustrate the regional patterns of partisan support. Democrats continue to enjoy an advantage in the Northeast and the Pacific Coast. Former Democratic advantages in many Midwestern states have disappeared -- only Illinois and Iowa were solidly Democratic 10 years ago and remain so, while the remaining Midwestern states tend to be competitive these days. Most Southern states are now solidly Republican, while 10 years ago they were competitive or solidly Democratic.

State	1993 classification (tilt toward which party)	2003 classification (tilt toward which party)	Pct. Pt. Change in Republican identification, 1993-2003
Maine	Competitive (Dem)	Competitive (none)	+2
New Hampshire	Competitive (Rep)	Solid Rep	+9
Vermont	Competitive (Rep)	Solid Dem	-8
Massachusetts	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	+5
Rhode Island	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	+2
Connecticut	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	-2
New York	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	0
New Jersey	Competitive (Rep)	Competitive (none)	-1
Pennsylvania	Solid Dem	Competitive (Dem)	+3
Maryland	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	+5
Delaware	Solid Dem	Competitive (Dem)	+4
West Virginia	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	+9
District of Columbia	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	0
Ohio	Solid Dem	Competitive (none)	+5
Michigan	Solid Dem	Competitive (Dem)	+3
Indiana	Competitive (Rep)	Solid Rep	+3
Illinois	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	+3
Wisconsin	Solid Dem	Competitive (Dem)	+6
Minnesota	Solid Dem	Competitive (Dem)	+12
Iowa	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	+1
Missouri	Solid Dem	Competitive (Rep)	+13
North Dakota	Competitive (Rep)	Solid Rep	+12
South Dakota	Competitive (Rep)	Solid Rep	+9
Nebraska	Solid Rep	Solid Rep	+6
Kansas	Solid Rep	Solid Rep	+4
Virginia	Competitive (Dem)	Solid Rep	+6
North Carolina	Competitive (Dem)	Competitive (Rep)	+4
South Carolina	Competitive (Dem)	Solid Rep	+6
Georgia	Solid Dem	Solid Rep	+10
Florida	Competitive (Dem)	Competitive (Rep)	+3
Kentucky	Solid Dem	Competitive (Dem)	+4
Tennessee	Solid Dem	Solid Rep	+8
Alabama	Solid Dem	Solid Rep	+12
Mississippi	Solid Dem	Solid Rep	+9
Arkansas	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	-3
Louisiana	Solid Dem	Competitive (Dem)	+12
Oklahoma	Solid Dem	Solid Rep	+14
Texas	Competitive (Dem)	Solid Rep	+9
Montana	Competitive (Dem)	Solid Rep	+5
Arizona	Solid Rep	Solid Rep	+2
Colorado	Competitive (none)	Solid Rep	+3
Idaho	Solid Rep	Solid Rep	+10
Wyoming	Solid Rep	Solid Rep	+8
Utah	Solid Rep	Solid Rep	+12
Nevada	Solid Rep	Competitive (Rep)	-3
New Mexico	Competitive (Dem)	Competitive (none)	+4
California	Solid Dem	Solid Dem	+2
Oregon	Competitive (Dem)	Solid Dem	-2
Washington	Competitive (Dem)	Competitive (none)	+4

The biggest Republican gains have been made in Oklahoma, Missouri, Alabama, Louisiana, Utah, Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho, and Georgia. In Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia, the shifts were large enough to move the states from a solid Democratic advantage to a solid Republican advantage. A 10-point gain for one party usually comes at the expense of the other party, and results in a change in the gap between the two parties of about 20 points. For example, in Georgia a 54% to 39% edge for the Democrats in 1993 shifted to a 49% to 43% edge for Republicans by 2003, a change in the gap of 21 points from a 15-point Democratic edge to a 6-point Republican edge.

Louisiana and Minnesota -- two of the most solidly Democratic states in 1993 -- are now competitive and show just a slight edge to the Democrats. Republicans have strengthened their hold in Utah, North Dakota, and Idaho.

Bottom Line

All else being equal -- the parties stand on relatively equal footing heading into the 2004 election. However, given that incumbent president George W. Bush is seeking re-election, the ultimate choice in 2004 may rest on voters' evaluations of the job he is doing more so than on their party preferences.

*These results are based on a combination of 41,048 interviews with U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, in multiday Gallup telephone polls conducted in 2003. The maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ± 1 percentage point for the entire sample.

For individual states, the maximum margins of sampling error vary from a low of ± 2 percentage points for California to highs of ±11 points for South Dakota and ± 13 percentage points for Washington, D.C. The typical state, with about 800 interviews, would have a margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.